Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. </li>
<li>TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.</li>
<li>UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.</li>
</ul>


AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. 
TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.
UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range
UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD976.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,371mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mediatek, Quanta Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD976.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,371mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mediatek, Quanta Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International, Yang Ming Marine Transport, Asustek Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International, Yang Ming Marine Transport, Asustek Computer.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International

<ul>
<li>Apple Set to Launch iPhone SE 4 and Updated iPad Air in Early 2025: Key Developments to Watch</li>
<li>META's Orion AR Glasses: Next Major Computing Platform After the Smartphone?</li>
<li>Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn't Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?</li>
</ul>


Apple Set to Launch iPhone SE 4 and Updated iPad Air in Early 2025: Key Developments to Watch
META's Orion AR Glasses: Next Major Computing Platform After the Smartphone?
Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn't Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Shifting AR Strategy After Meta Orion Showcase; Apple Supply Chain Monitor

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Price Gauge
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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Shifting AR Strategy After Meta Orion Showcase; Apple Supply Chain Monitor

Apple is set to launch new iPhone SE 4 and iPad Air in 2025, Meta's Orion AR Glasses could be the next big thing, and Apple is being forced to react.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Shifting AR Strategy After Meta Orion Showcase; Apple Supply Chain Monitor

​Apple is set to launch new iPhone SE 4 and iPad Air in 2025, Meta's Orion AR Glasses could be the next big thing, and Apple is being forced to react.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Apple is set to launch new iPhone SE 4 and iPad Air in 2025, Meta's Orion AR Glasses could be the next big thing, and Apple is being forced to react.