Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans </li>
<li>Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs</li>
<li>Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs</li>
</ul>


HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans 
Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs
Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs


HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>'Buy' calls for Genting Singapore; DBS keeps 'hold' rating.</li><li>Lim &amp; Tan starts 'buy' on Zixin Group, targeting a price of 6.6 cents.</li><li>Maybank raises Sanli Environmental's target price after $205M PUB project win.</li></ul>

'Buy' calls for Genting Singapore; DBS keeps 'hold' rating.Lim &amp; Tan starts 'buy' on Zixin Group, targeting a price of 6.6 cents.Maybank raises Sanli Environmental's target price after $205M PUB project win.

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Nov-2025): Genting Singapore: Buy rating; DBS maintains Hold.

<ul><li>CGSI raises DBS target price above $60, joining Citi and Maybank.</li><li>RHB raises OCBC's target price by 7% but remains ‘neutral’ post 3QFY2025 results.</li><li>RHB maintains DBS as 'buy' and UOB as 'neutral' after 3QFY2025 results.</li></ul>

CGSI raises DBS target price above $60, joining Citi and Maybank.RHB raises OCBC's target price by 7% but remains ‘neutral’ post 3QFY2025 results.RHB maintains DBS as 'buy' and UOB as 'neutral' after 3QFY2025 results.

Singapore Market Roundup (10-Nov-2025): CGSI boosts DBS target price above $60, following Citi,

<ul>
<li>There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace</li>
<li>LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.</li>
<li>Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.</li>
</ul>


There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace
LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.
Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.


HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

<ul>
<li>Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY</li>
<li>Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics</li>
<li>Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines</li>
</ul>


Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY
Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics
Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines


HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Singapore

United Overseas Bank is a leading Asian bank offering a comprehensive range of financial services across its Group Retail, Group Wholesale Banking, and Global Markets segments. Its offerings include personal, private, commercial, and corporate banking, investment banking, asset management, and insurance services. The bank is headquartered in Singapore and was founded in 1935.

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United Overseas Bank (UOB SP)

HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

HSBC interview with Bloomberg shows another set of cost-cutting efforts. For anybody following this bank for ~20 years, a pattern is clear. It's...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Nov-2025): Genting Singapore: Buy rating; DBS maintains Hold.

Genting Singapore gets 'buy' calls; DBS holds 'hold' rating. Lim & Tan starts 'buy' on Zixin Group at 6.6 cents. Maybank raises Sanli...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (10-Nov-2025): CGSI boosts DBS target price above $60, following Citi,

CGSI raises DBS target price above $60, joining Citi and Maybank. RHB lifts OCBC's target by 7% but stays ‘neutral’; maintains DBS as 'buy' and UOB...

Singapore Market Roundup

HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

New data on LDR, shows further contraction. This is partly driven by accelerating USD deposit growth at +20.5% YoY for July.

Daniel Tabbush

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Dah Sing Financial shows 4x growth YoY in its Macau and China credit costs. This is not clearly visible, or its Overdue Loan migration, in headline...

Daniel Tabbush

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