Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America</li>
<li>No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are <em>falling</em>
</li>
<li>Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak</li>
</ul>


Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America
No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are falling

Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125</li>
<li>Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here</li>
</ul>


In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125
Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement
Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here


J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SHEIN's new IPO filing in Hong Kong shows the company recording a Net Loss in Q126</li>
<li>A sharp increase in Q126 fulfilment costs helps to explain the period's weaker profitability</li>
<li>SHEIN's ability to rein in unit fulfilment costs should be a key driver of long-term performance</li>
</ul>


SHEIN's new IPO filing in Hong Kong shows the company recording a Net Loss in Q126
A sharp increase in Q126 fulfilment costs helps to explain the period's weaker profitability
SHEIN's ability to rein in unit fulfilment costs should be a key driver of long-term performance


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Quick P&L Review and Why Managing Unit Fulfilment Costs Matters So Much

<ul>
<li>H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125</li>
<li>We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression</li>
<li>SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting</li>
</ul>


H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125
We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression
SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting


SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

<ul>
<li>The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers</li>
<li>The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers</li>
<li>It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models </li>
</ul>


The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers
The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers
It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models 


The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

United States

United Parcel Service, Inc.(UPS) delivers packages and documents throughout the United States and in other countries and territories.  The Company also provides global supply chain services and less-than-truckload transportation, primarily in the U.S. UPS's business consists of integrated air and ground pick-up and delivery network

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United Parcel Service Cl B (UPS US)

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Strong growth from J&T Global in H126, with overall revenue up 40% and adj EBITDA up an impressive 68%. But shares appear to be trading on 20x FY26...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Quick P&L Review and Why Managing Unit Fulfilment Costs Matters So Much

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're now re...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

SF Holding's H126 results were uninspiring, with Revenue climbing 6% but margins falling vs H125. We believe high fuel costs and changing sales mix...

Tracking Traffic

The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Thie story of fake US postage being used to distribute Chinese goods to US consumers isn't just a fascinating story -- it could potentially have...

Tracking Traffic

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