Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table</li>
<li>New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices</li>
<li>China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected </li>
</ul>


Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table
New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices
China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected 


Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflationary impulses are alive and well, coming through even in "core" US data</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan continues to flounder around a JPY strategy</li>
<li>Are US banks attempting a back-door QE, aided by the Federal Reserve?</li>
</ul>


Inflationary impulses are alive and well, coming through even in "core" US data
The Bank of Japan continues to flounder around a JPY strategy
Are US banks attempting a back-door QE, aided by the Federal Reserve?


Inflation Takes Centre Stage - QE Coming?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.</li><li>The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.</li><li>The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.</li></ul>

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

<ul>
<li>The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  </li>
<li>A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.</li>
<li>Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.</li>
</ul>


The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  
A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.
Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.


US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

United States

United States Oil Fund LP is a Delaware limited partnership incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of WTI Crude Oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of the WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the NYMEX. The fund is a commodity pool.

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United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

Inflation Takes Centre Stage - QE Coming?

Inflationary pressures in the US are evident, putting more pressure on the JPY. US banks may be engaging in a back-door quantitative easing with...

Rikki Malik

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by...

Steno Research

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -​Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

Inflation Takes Centre Stage - QE Coming?

​Inflationary pressures in the US are evident, putting more pressure on the JPY. US banks may be engaging in a back-door quantitative easing with...

Rikki Malik

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by...

Steno Research

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

​The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Inflationary pressures in the US are evident, putting more pressure on the JPY. US banks may be engaging in a back-door quantitative easing with...

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...