Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

This note summarises recent CrossBorder Capital bond research. In it we introduce a new predictive yield curve parameter and show how liquidity factors dominate the term structure. Together they suggest that the US economy is set to slow over the next 6-12 months, because of weak liquidity, and that Federal Reserve policy-makers will consequently struggle to force through the seven rate rises slated in their “forward guidance” to end-2020. In short, we foresee US policy rates peaking at 2½%, not…

This note summarises recent CrossBorder Capital bond research. In it we introduce a new predictive yield curve parameter and show how liquidity factors dominate the term structure. Together they suggest that the US economy is set to slow over the next 6-12 months, because of weak liquidity, and that Federal Reserve policy-makers will consequently struggle to force through the seven rate rises slated in their “forward guidance” to end-2020. In short, we foresee US policy rates peaking at 2½%, not…

Fewer US Interest Rate Hikes Ahead? Economy Pointing Down, Bond Prices Could Soon Rally

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very rich. The OIS-Libor spread, the gold/silver ratio, the 10-year Treasury yield, volatility indices, debt ratios, valuations – everything, it seems, points to a massive market correction. However, we warn against the trap of looking for historical ‘rhymes’. There has been no historical precedent to today’s markets and, as a result, some of the market-charting devices used of old may well be worthless. Economic growth and market performance do not coincide all that much but it is unusual for markets to collapse when economic growth is healthy, debt servicing ability is sound and the banking sector is without obvious weak points - subprime lending being the obvious factor in 2007. Our recession indicators are not flashing warning signals, the US is not a threat to global financial markets and the US economy shows no trouble ahead this year.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very rich. The OIS-Libor spread, the gold/silver ratio, the 10-year Treasury yield, volatility indices, debt ratios, valuations – everything, it seems, points to a massive market correction. However, we warn against the trap of looking for historical ‘rhymes’. There has been no historical precedent to today’s markets and, as a result, some of the market-charting devices used of old may well be worthless. Economic growth and market performance do not coincide all that much but it is unusual for markets to collapse when economic growth is healthy, debt servicing ability is sound and the banking sector is without obvious weak points - subprime lending being the obvious factor in 2007. Our recession indicators are not flashing warning signals, the US is not a threat to global financial markets and the US economy shows no trouble ahead this year.

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit; the only other short-term target in this area is 3.34% (v = i+iii).  However, the rally pattern from last September finally looks more complete, although it could easily produce a minor correction and then a further high prior to a larger correction (i.e. 50 b.p.+).Divergence has appeared in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI , and 21-week…

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit; the only other short-term target in this area is 3.34% (v = i+iii).  However, the rally pattern from last September finally looks more complete, although it could easily produce a minor correction and then a further high prior to a larger correction (i.e. 50 b.p.+).Divergence has appeared in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI , and 21-week…

US 10-Year:  Due to Pause in Its Bear Market

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

By confronting Beijing over the US deficit in bilateral trade, President Trump has opened a Pandora’s Box of grievances concerning the broader aspects of the US/China relationship which have been mainly suppressed since the GFC.It’s not clear if President Trump had intended to challenge the whole basis of the US/China relationship or whether he was just looking for a big win on specific trade-related issues before the midterm elections in early November, but the broader Washington policymaking establishment is now pushing an agenda for China to reverse the authoritarian shift in political and economic policies which has been evident since the GFC.The rising tensions between the two global superpowers are an additional headwind for emerging equities, which are starting to underperform their developed peers due to the rising dollar and crowded long positions in EM debt and equity.  Dedicated EM or NJA investors should switch from the more cyclical markets such as Taiwan and Korea, towards those markets in South East Asia, which have come under the most intense pressure from rising US bond yields, namely Indonesia and the Philippines.Further out, the most vulnerable market to the US/China dispute(s) should be China itself, which has been designated as a safe haven by many big investors, a stance which will be undermined if the rising dollar and increasing pressure from Washington, are catalysts for renewed capital outflows. A strong dollar will also limit Beijing’s ability to provide a renewed stimulus, as the reflation which has relieved the pressure on the most heavily indebted industrial sectors, subsides.

By confronting Beijing over the US deficit in bilateral trade, President Trump has opened a Pandora’s Box of grievances concerning the broader aspects of the US/China relationship which have been mainly suppressed since the GFC.It’s not clear if President Trump had intended to challenge the whole basis of the US/China relationship or whether he was just looking for a big win on specific trade-related issues before the midterm elections in early November, but the broader Washington policymaking establishment is now pushing an agenda for China to reverse the authoritarian shift in political and economic policies which has been evident since the GFC.The rising tensions between the two global superpowers are an additional headwind for emerging equities, which are starting to underperform their developed peers due to the rising dollar and crowded long positions in EM debt and equity.  Dedicated EM or NJA investors should switch from the more cyclical markets such as Taiwan and Korea, towards those markets in South East Asia, which have come under the most intense pressure from rising US bond yields, namely Indonesia and the Philippines.Further out, the most vulnerable market to the US/China dispute(s) should be China itself, which has been designated as a safe haven by many big investors, a stance which will be undermined if the rising dollar and increasing pressure from Washington, are catalysts for renewed capital outflows. A strong dollar will also limit Beijing’s ability to provide a renewed stimulus, as the reflation which has relieved the pressure on the most heavily indebted industrial sectors, subsides. 

The US/China Relationship: Investors Complacent Despite Irreconcilable Differences

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Fewer US Interest Rate Hikes Ahead? Economy Pointing Down, Bond Prices Could Soon Rally

This note summarises recent CrossBorder Capital bond research. In it we introduce a new predictive yield curve parameter and show how liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

A Fruitless Game: What History?

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very...

Dr. Jim Walker

US 10-Year: Due to Pause in Its Bear Market

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit;...

Peter Beuttell

Global Bond Yields Set to Rise Further

We see higher US and global yields developing. Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade...

Greg Gibbs

The US/China Relationship: Investors Complacent Despite Irreconcilable Differences

By confronting Beijing over the US deficit in bilateral trade, President Trump has opened a Pandora’s Box of grievances concerning the broader...

John-Paul Smith

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