Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

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Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>US 10 year cleared the 4.90% resistance threshold as the market reprices Fed policy. This yield pop will have lasting effects.</li>
<li>3.85% is the key support with to supply rally energy.</li>
<li>Short term target comes in at 4.20% and MT resistance at 4.70% (but not in a strait line). A staircase move is expected.</li>
</ul>


US 10 year cleared the 4.90% resistance threshold as the market reprices Fed policy. This yield pop will have lasting effects.
3.85% is the key support with to supply rally energy.
Short term target comes in at 4.20% and MT resistance at 4.70% (but not in a strait line). A staircase move is expected.


<ul>
<li>Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR).</li>
<li>We are approaching the end of the April buoyant cycle for risk with momentum due to start tapering off next week with late April a timeline for a turn.</li>
<li>Pay close attention to the bullish wedge in the dollar and the bull wedge in yield - some clear synergy and then we have gold topping. Late April/May clarity.</li>
</ul>


Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR).
We are approaching the end of the April buoyant cycle for risk with momentum due to start tapering off next week with late April a timeline for a turn.
Pay close attention to the bullish wedge in the dollar and the bull wedge in yield - some clear synergy and then we have gold topping. Late April/May clarity.


<p>Yield related assets have held up very well and appear to be front running a top in yield. Gold held up incredibly well and banks stocks hit resistance to start working in a pair short. NDX is well off the 12,300 low in futures from early March and kissing fresh long support near 12,700. Lows in gold, NDX and top in XLF and the USD tells us that a shift is taking place ahead of a top in yield.</p>

Yield related assets have held up very well and appear to be front running a top in yield. Gold held up incredibly well and banks stocks hit resistance to start working in a pair short. NDX is well off the 12,300 low in futures from early March and kissing fresh long support near 12,700. Lows in gold, NDX and top in XLF and the USD tells us that a shift is taking place ahead of a top in yield.

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Shift in Rate Dynamics

US 10 year cleared the 4.90% resistance threshold as the market reprices Fed policy. This yield pop will have lasting effects.

Thomas Schroeder

Spx, Yield, USD and Gold Alignment

Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR). We...

Thomas Schroeder

Assets Front Running a Yield Peak

Yield linked assets are front running a top in yield. Gold held up incredibly well and banks stocks hit resistance to start working in a pair...

Thomas Schroeder

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

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