Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
​
Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
​
The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% today (the vote was unanimous).  The policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment…

As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% today (the vote was unanimous).  The policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment…

Fed Holds Steady; Treasury Boosts Issuance Again

We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet wind down to illustrate a path for longer-term Treasury yields.  Our statistical model implies a further backup in bond yields in 2018 and 2019.  Fiscal trends and the runoff of Fed Treasury holdings should also act against a further material flattening of the Treasury yield curve this year and next.

We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet wind down to illustrate a path for longer-term Treasury yields.  Our statistical model implies a further backup in bond yields in 2018 and 2019.  Fiscal trends and the runoff of Fed Treasury holdings should also act against a further material flattening of the Treasury yield curve this year and next.

U.S. Deficit Financing, Yields, and the Shape of the Treasury Curve

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We have made a case for higher US 10 year bond yields from the 2.15% level amid a bullish oil and energy stance. We are now seeing renewed signs of strength in metals and materials sectors that have been driven higher by short squeezes in Aluminum and Nickel with copper and palladium displaying fresh bullish signals. The Bloomberg commodity index is nudging up against a key inflection resistance and breakout point that once crossed, would see metals and commodities move higher in line with the…

We have made a case for higher US 10 year bond yields from the 2.15% level amid a bullish oil and energy stance. We are now seeing renewed signs of strength in metals and materials sectors that have been driven higher by short squeezes in Aluminum and Nickel with copper and palladium displaying fresh bullish signals. The Bloomberg commodity index is nudging up against a key inflection resistance and breakout point that once crossed, would see metals and commodities move higher in line with the…

Commodities Pressuring Yields - Metals Bull Theme

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

US 10 year yield is on the rise again, on the back of the bull wedge breakout that has been taking shape since February. Our call was for a drift in yield from 3.95% back to 2.65% with a revised low zone at 2.76-60% which provided pock support. The bigger question revolves around how equities react to a press on/above the 3% zone compares to overdone fears in February.We have maintained our macro long yield position (bearish price from 127.50 futures) from 2.15% for a move higher into 2019 with…

US 10 year yield is on the rise again, on the back of the bull wedge breakout that has been taking shape since February. Our call was for a drift in yield from 3.95% back to 2.65% with a revised low zone at 2.76-60% which provided pock support. The bigger question revolves around how equities react to a press on/above the 3% zone compares to overdone fears in February.We have maintained our macro long yield position (bearish price from 127.50 futures) from 2.15% for a move higher into 2019 with…

President Trump took a further step toward shaping the Federal Reserve with his nomination of Richard Clarida to be Fed Vice Chairman (the nominations of Clarida, Marvin Goodfriend and Michelle Bowman, await Senate confirmation).  We think Clarida is a strong pick for Vice Chairman, will be easily confirmed by the Senate and will complement Fed Chairman Jay Powell.  Clarida has a long history in publishing on monetary policy and many of his writings on the topic in the past two decades have been…

President Trump took a further step toward shaping the Federal Reserve with his nomination of Richard Clarida to be Fed Vice Chairman (the nominations of Clarida, Marvin Goodfriend and Michelle Bowman, await Senate confirmation).  We think Clarida is a strong pick for Vice Chairman, will be easily confirmed by the Senate and will complement Fed Chairman Jay Powell.  Clarida has a long history in publishing on monetary policy and many of his writings on the topic in the past two decades have been…

Thoughts on Richard Clarida as Fed Vice Chairman

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Fed Holds Steady; Treasury Boosts Issuance Again

As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% today (the vote was unanimous). The policy statement...

RDQ Economics

U.S. Deficit Financing, Yields, and the Shape of the Treasury Curve

We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet...

RDQ Economics

Commodities Pressuring Yields - Metals Bull Theme

We have made a case for higher US 10 year bond yields from the 2.15% level amid a bullish oil and energy stance. We are now seeing renewed signs of...

Thomas Schroeder

10yr 3% Pressure Test -

US 10 year yield is on the rise again, on the back of the bull wedge breakout that has been taking shape since February. Our call was for a drift...

Thomas Schroeder

Thoughts on Richard Clarida as Fed Vice Chairman

President Trump took a further step toward shaping the Federal Reserve with his nomination of Richard Clarida to be Fed Vice Chairman (the...

RDQ Economics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)