Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.</li><li>Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.</li></ul>

Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The U.S government will shut down November 17th if a full Congress doesn’t pass 12 individual budget laws – or so-called appropriations – or adopt another Continuing Resolution (CR) that would extend the FY23 budget. </li><li>A new CR is hard to imagine given that the GOP lost their former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, after the first CR was passed. </li><li>The U.S federal debt has undoubtedly featured heavily in the closed-door Speaker negotiations in the Republican Caucus. Cutting the nation’s $33 trillion dollar debt is a big priority among the far-right members of the GOP who ousted McCarthy – members who want promises heading into budget negotiations. </li></ul>

The U.S government will shut down November 17th if a full Congress doesn’t pass 12 individual budget laws – or so-called appropriations – or adopt another Continuing Resolution (CR) that would extend the FY23 budget. A new CR is hard to imagine given that the GOP lost their former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, after the first CR was passed. The U.S federal debt has undoubtedly featured heavily in the closed-door Speaker negotiations in the Republican Caucus. Cutting the nation’s $33 trillion dollar debt is a big priority among the far-right members of the GOP who ousted McCarthy – members who want promises heading into budget negotiations. 

US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>
The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)! It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns. 
</li>
<li>If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.</li>
</ul>



The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)!   It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns. 

If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.


Steno Signals #70 – 10 Charts You NEED to Monitor in Global Macro

<ul><li>We of course have been totally explicit about how stocks have been a minefield to go long since August and while I entertained the thought of a brief comeback on the back of a potential breather at the long-end of the UST curve, it is rather obvious that none of that is really playing out.</li><li>The bond market is in a sad state and risk assets struggle to keep afloat and we grace ourselves of having no net exposure to either asset class.</li><li>We are currently in the process of thoroughly reviewing our portfolio and are actively considering the inclusion of bonds to profit from the prevailing disinflationary pressures and the overall subdued economic outlook</li></ul>

We of course have been totally explicit about how stocks have been a minefield to go long since August and while I entertained the thought of a brief comeback on the back of a potential breather at the long-end of the UST curve, it is rather obvious that none of that is really playing out.The bond market is in a sad state and risk assets struggle to keep afloat and we grace ourselves of having no net exposure to either asset class.We are currently in the process of thoroughly reviewing our portfolio and are actively considering the inclusion of bonds to profit from the prevailing disinflationary pressures and the overall subdued economic outlook

Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

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Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Main points: The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow. Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The...

Steno Research

US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained

The U.S. House of Representatives woke up this morning to the 22nd day without a Speaker. 4 nominees have come and gone, and today it is junior...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #70 – 10 Charts You NEED to Monitor in Global Macro

Happy Sunday from Mallorca and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial. The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?

“It’s not apparently about expectations of higher inflation. And it’s also not mainly about shorter term policy moves”Jerome PowellHello Everyone...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

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