Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: Yield curve looks prone to make equities puke. Real economic data looks weak as well. Jobs still strong lending support. </li>
<li>Let’s start by honing in on the historic perspective of the recent moves in the yield curve.</li>
<li>Equity longs are already getting a taste of the curve medicine with SPX down some 6% in a month with long-end yields up more than 15%.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways: Yield curve looks prone to make equities puke. Real economic data looks weak as well. Jobs still strong lending support. 
Let’s start by honing in on the historic perspective of the recent moves in the yield curve.
Equity longs are already getting a taste of the curve medicine with SPX down some 6% in a month with long-end yields up more than 15%.


Recession Nugget: 4 Charts for the Equity Bears, 1 Chart for the Bulls!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.</li><li>We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.</li><li>Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.</li></ul>

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Using a relatively short data sample, we show that buying bonds when the US 10-year real yield rises above 2% has been an attractive strategy.</li>
<li>Equities underperformed their long-term average once the real yield hit this critical level.</li>
<li>Moreover, the Federal Reserve Target Rate and the real yield tended to drop once the latter crossed the 2% threshold.</li>
</ul>


Using a relatively short data sample, we show that buying bonds when the US 10-year real yield rises above 2% has been an attractive strategy.
Equities underperformed their long-term average once the real yield hit this critical level.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve Target Rate and the real yield tended to drop once the latter crossed the 2% threshold.


Real Rates Above 2%? Buy Bonds and Sell Equities

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul>
<li>On a tension-filled Saturday, a mere three hours away from a government shutdown, the US Senate passed a continuing resolution ensuring the wheels of the US Government would continue turning for another 45 days.</li>
<li>Many expected a drawn-out standoff over GOP’s spending cuts or the border policies.</li>
<li>However, the final outcome was not only surprising but raised eyebrows on the GOP’s newfound focus.</li>
</ul>


On a tension-filled Saturday, a mere three hours away from a government shutdown, the US Senate passed a continuing resolution ensuring the wheels of the US Government would continue turning for another 45 days.
Many expected a drawn-out standoff over GOP’s spending cuts or the border policies.
However, the final outcome was not only surprising but raised eyebrows on the GOP’s newfound focus.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Recession Nugget: 4 Charts for the Equity Bears, 1 Chart for the Bulls!

Takeaways: Yield curve looks prone to make equities pukeReal economic data looks weak as well Jobs still strong lending support Let’s start by...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards. We put...

Steno Research

Real Rates Above 2%? Buy Bonds and Sell Equities

Using a small data sample, as elevated real yields have become increasingly scarce, US 10-year real yields of 2% or more favor Treasuries over...

Jeroen Blokland

Great Game: McCarthy blinked first

On a tension-filled Saturday, a mere three hours away from a government shutdown, the US Senate passed a continuing resolution ensuring the wheels...

Steno Research

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

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