Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.</li>
<li>Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.</li>
</ul>


“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.
The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.
Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.


Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>As always, we are here to take you through the relevant positioning data that we have gathered throughout the week.</li><li>This week marked the first brutal decline in markets after a prolonged period of continuous rally, triggered by the BoJ decision.</li><li>The sudden pullback in UST duration has had a spill-over effect on all markets.</li></ul>

As always, we are here to take you through the relevant positioning data that we have gathered throughout the week.This week marked the first brutal decline in markets after a prolonged period of continuous rally, triggered by the BoJ decision.The sudden pullback in UST duration has had a spill-over effect on all markets.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Sovereigns are getting killed across the board this week and it is indeed difficult to find much optimism in that many assets as of this week.</li>
<li>We take some encouragement from being long the least worse of a bad bunch and those few areas that have actually performed.</li>
<li>With that in mind its probably a rather provocative proposition to suggest an event-driven sovereign EM sovereign credit play on a serial default criminal that may offer some decent risk/reward in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Sovereigns are getting killed across the board this week and it is indeed difficult to find much optimism in that many assets as of this week.
We take some encouragement from being long the least worse of a bad bunch and those few areas that have actually performed.
With that in mind its probably a rather provocative proposition to suggest an event-driven sovereign EM sovereign credit play on a serial default criminal that may offer some decent risk/reward in the short term.


EM By EM #15 – Ecuador General Election as a Catalyst?

<ul>
<li>What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.</li>
<li>In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.</li>
<li>With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.</li>
</ul>


What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and materials ahead of the worst storm and the big question is now whether this is just a “hump” or the start of a broad steepening trend.
In last week’s Portfolio Watch we declared that we anticipated a steepening curve:”Many are urgently discussing the ramifications of the BoJ move to push the band on the YCC.
With equities already looking frothy and volatility being low we may see some reversal near term – or perhaps stonks just carry on their insufferable streak and shorts keep getting wiped out as shares are sold to buy cheap calls.


Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Contrary to expectations following turbulent regional banking events in March, the US economy has surprised to the upside with GDP growth above its potential rate.</li>
<li>The loosening of yield curve control could impact future Japanese participation, but other factors, including US fiscal and monetary policy conduct and exchange rate movements, will also play important roles. </li>
<li>The US Treasury has announced ambitious borrowing plans for 2023 H2, thereby raising concerns about the financial system's ability to easily absorb high debt issuance. </li>
</ul>


Contrary to expectations following turbulent regional banking events in March, the US economy has surprised to the upside with GDP growth above its potential rate.
The loosening of yield curve control could impact future Japanese participation, but other factors, including US fiscal and monetary policy conduct and exchange rate movements, will also play important roles. 
The US Treasury has announced ambitious borrowing plans for 2023 H2, thereby raising concerns about the financial system's ability to easily absorb high debt issuance. 


US Treasuries Outlook: Economic and Policy Risks Remain, While Market Functionality Faces Challenges

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Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: From Japan with Love

As always, we are here to take you through the relevant positioning data that we have gathered throughout the week. This week marked the first...

Steno Research

EM By EM #15 – Ecuador General Election as a Catalyst?

Sovereigns are getting killed across the board this week and it is indeed difficult to find much optimism in that many assets as of this week. We...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Steep, Steeper, Steepest!

What a week in global fixed income! We thankfully rotated out of bonds and into cyclical exposures in steepeners, commodities, energy and...

Steno Research

US Treasuries Outlook: Economic and Policy Risks Remain, While Market Functionality Faces Challenges

US Treasuries face uncertain times due to economic and policy risks, while market functionality has become problematic. Balance sheet constraints...

DeSaque Macro Research

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