Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li style="text-align: left;">
‘True’ Fed Funds policy rates (incorporating the effects of QT) are nearer 5-6% than the stated 2½% </li>
<li style="text-align: left;">‘Tight’ monetary stance is unsustainable and will be followed by a substantial monetary easing</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">Structural shortage of ‘safe’ assets and soft economy will underpin bond returns</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">Expect a yield curve steepening, led by falling near-term maturities, and rising bond market volatility </li>
</ul>



‘True’ Fed Funds policy rates (incorporating the effects of QT) are nearer 5-6% than the stated 2½% 
‘Tight’ monetary stance is unsustainable and will be followed by a substantial monetary easing
Structural shortage of ‘safe’ assets and soft economy will underpin bond returns
Expect a yield curve steepening, led by falling near-term maturities, and rising bond market volatility 


US Monetary Policy After The ‘Great U-Turn’

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

We did not anticipate the Fed's dovish pivot, which occurred despite Fed Chairman Powell's own guidance in 2018 and in early 2019.  Nonetheless, the Fed has pivoted and with this insight we address the impact of this Fed policy shift on our outlook for Treasury yields.  We also address the questions: i) does the Fed know something we don't and ii) do markets always lead the economic data?

We did not anticipate the Fed's dovish pivot, which occurred despite Fed Chairman Powell's own guidance in 2018 and in early 2019.  Nonetheless, the Fed has pivoted and with this insight we address the impact of this Fed policy shift on our outlook for Treasury yields.  We also address the questions: i) does the Fed know something we don't and ii) do markets always lead the economic data?

The Fed's Dovish Policy Pivot and Treasury Yields Yields

<ul>
<li>Widely held view that Chinese eased ‘massively’ in January 2019 – it did NOT</li>
<li>According to latest daily Open Market Operations little change through February</li>
<li>Liquidity matters hugely (China contributes around one-fifth of Global Liquidity)</li>
<li>We still expect PBoC easing over coming weeks and continue to favour Chinese markets</li>
</ul>


Widely held view that Chinese eased ‘massively’ in January 2019 – it did NOT
According to latest daily Open Market Operations little change through February
Liquidity matters hugely (China contributes around one-fifth of Global Liquidity)
We still expect PBoC easing over coming weeks and continue to favour Chinese markets


’Fake News’ Threatens China’s Rally

Chief Economist (US), RDQ Economics

John Ryding

Chief Economist (US)

Fed Chairman Jay Powell presents his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate on Tuesday February 26 and the House on Wednesday February 27.  Fed policy has taken a marked dovish turn between December 19 and January 30 in changes to both forward guidance and the outlook for the balance sheet yet the Fed's central forecast of solid growth, strong employment gains, and price inflation near target has not changed.  We offer three questions that we would ask the Mr Powell if we could and our thoughts on why these questions are important.  We suspect that the bond market, which is leaning in the direction that the Fed eases later in 2019, has been set up for a fall.

Fed Chairman Jay Powell presents his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate on Tuesday February 26 and the House on Wednesday February 27.  Fed policy has taken a marked dovish turn between December 19 and January 30 in changes to both forward guidance and the outlook for the balance sheet yet the Fed's central forecast of solid growth, strong employment gains, and price inflation near target has not changed.  We offer three questions that we would ask the Mr Powell if we could and our thoughts on why these questions are important.  We suspect that the bond market, which is leaning in the direction that the Fed eases later in 2019, has been set up for a fall.

Three Questions for Chairman Powell on Monetary Policy

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Our macro stance touted a bearish yield scenario from 3.26% and again once below 3% with a target of 2.62% and has since been revised lower. Recent yield fade call from 2.80% targets much lower yields and will have a ripple effect globally.A fresh plunge in yield would favor rate sensitive assets and warn of a harder slow down cycle. The bond market is pounding the table that global growth will slow more dramatically than what is currently priced into market and equities.The offset is clearly a more dovish CB tone, China stimulus and closing in on sentiment capitulation.Triangulation breakout will offer a powerful trade. Yields are set for a big move.

Our macro stance touted a bearish yield scenario from 3.26% and again once below 3% with a target of 2.62% and has since been revised lower. Recent yield fade call from 2.80% targets much lower yields and will have a ripple effect globally.A fresh plunge in yield would favor rate sensitive assets and warn of a harder slow down cycle. The bond market is pounding the table that global growth will slow more dramatically than what is currently priced into market and equities.The offset is clearly a more dovish CB tone, China stimulus and closing in on sentiment capitulation.Triangulation breakout will offer a powerful trade. Yields are set for a big move.

US 10yr Triangle Geared for a Power Breakout

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

US Monetary Policy After The ‘Great U-Turn’

‘True’ Fed Funds policy rates (incorporating the effects of QT) are nearer 5-6% than the stated 2½% ‘Tight’ monetary stance is unsustainable and...

Michael J. Howell

The Fed's Dovish Policy Pivot and Treasury Yields Yields

We did not anticipate the Fed's dovish pivot, which occurred despite Fed Chairman Powell's own guidance in 2018 and in early 2019. Nonetheless,...

RDQ Economics

’Fake News’ Threatens China’s Rally

Widely held view that Chinese eased ‘massively’ in January 2019 – it did NOT According to latest daily Open Market Operations little change...

Michael J. Howell

Three Questions for Chairman Powell on Monetary Policy

Fed Chairman Jay Powell presents his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate on Tuesday February 26 and the House on Wednesday...

RDQ Economics

US 10yr Triangle Geared for a Power Breakout

Our macro stance touted a bearish yield scenario from 3.26% and again once below 3% with a target of 2.62% and has since been revised lower. Recent...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)