ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma</strong><strong>is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</strong></p>
<p><strong>We add below a NEW section</strong>, <strong>which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </strong></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/more-rune-reading-trade-balances-have-given-a-good-insight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43301" rel="noopener">More Rune Reading: Trade Balances Have Given a Good Insight,</a> Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-jim-walker" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628" rel="noopener">Dr Jim Walker</a> looks at the relationship between trade balances and domestic demand across the region. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-s-tourism-dilemma-buy-retailers-hospitals-and-select-hotels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43526" rel="noopener">Thailand's Tourism Dilemma - Buy Retailers, Hospitals, and Select Hotels,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> examines the impact of the sharp downturn of tourism in Thailand and which sectors and companies will benefit most from an impending recovery.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/could-vietnamese-equities-be-set-for-take-off" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43793" rel="noopener">Could Vietnamese Equities Be Set For Take-Off?,</a> Strategist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-j-howell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2312" rel="noopener">Michael J. Howell</a> zeros in on the Vietnamese market, where he sees potential for a sharp recovery. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/comfort-delgro-cd-staycation-expo-and-no-more-rental-relief" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43391" rel="noopener">Comfort Delgro (CD): Staycation, Expo and No More Rental Relief,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits Singapore's leading taxi operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>, as he sees potential catalysts on the horizon. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wilmar-yka-s-pricing-cheap-rump-stake" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43702" rel="noopener">Wilmar: YKA's Pricing &amp; Cheap Rump Stake,</a> events specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> returns to look at the listing of its China Agribusiness unit under Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' (YKA), which is seeing strong demand but he finds the real value in the stub value if Wilmar's other assets.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fct-placement-well-flagged-but-still-a-large-deal-to-digest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43659" rel="noopener">FCT Placement - Well Flagged but Still a Large Deal to Digest,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> revisits the deal dynamics of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> planned placement.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-short-term-catalysts-are-not-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43675" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> take an initial look at this upcoming Thai packaging IPO and finds it unattractive short-term. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-risks-rewards-attractive-at-the-higher-end-of-the-ipo-price-range" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43751" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> revisits this major Thai packaging IPO, with a more positive tone. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-banks-down-but-coming-back" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43744" rel="noopener">Thai Banks: Down But Coming Back,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> takes a look at Thai Banks in light of a gradual opening-up by the country to foreign tourists, albeit in a small way short term. </p><p> In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-media-spotlight-collapse-or-redemption" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42462" rel="noopener">Thai Media Spotlight: Collapse or Redemption?,</a> out Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> revisits the Thai Media sector in light of the COVID-19 recovery in the country.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-stalker-sisb-s-pandemic-is-sri-trang-gloves-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42035" rel="noopener">IPO Stalker: SISB's Pandemic Is Sri Trang Gloves' Profits</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> reports back having met with management from two recently IPO'd companies, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sisb-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27425:1" rel="noopener">SISB Public Company Limited (SISB TB)</a> (the country's only listed school) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB)</a>, the world's third-largest rubber glove producer and the hottest IPO on the SET in 2020. </p><div><div id="ember7971"><div id="ember7972"><p>In a Smartkarma Original,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-dividend-forecasting-the-rise-and-fall-of-dividends-across-asian-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43022" rel="noopener"> Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ankit-agrawal-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4555" rel="noopener">Ankit Agrawal, CFA,</a> bring us a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividends. </p></div></div></div><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jababeka-trade-war-beneficiary-with-time-on-its-side" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43636" rel="noopener">Jababeka: Trade War Beneficiary with Time on Its Side,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:13468" rel="noopener">Derek Silva</a> provides a view from a credit perspective on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7755:1" rel="noopener">Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ)</a>. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gajah-tunggal-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-2e687246-c77c-4d11-8a86-0d019a4b61c1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43788" rel="noopener">Gajah Tunggal - Tear Sheet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> provides a top-down credit view on one of Indonesia's largest tyre manufacturers. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alam-sutera-event-flash-tender-offer-for-2021-and-2022-notes-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43760" rel="noopener">Alam Sutera - Event Flash - Tender Offer For 2021 And 2022 Notes</a>, credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> revisits this Indonesian property developer in light of a tender offer for its 2021 and 2022 Notes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alam-sutera-realty-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2312:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarmais filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn More Rune Reading: Trade Balances Have Given a Good Insight, Economist Dr Jim Walker looks at the relationship between trade balances and domestic demand across the region. In Thailand's Tourism Dilemma - Buy Retailers, Hospitals, and Select Hotels, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh examines the impact of the sharp downturn of tourism in Thailand and which sectors and companies will benefit most from an impending recovery.  In Could Vietnamese Equities Be Set For Take-Off?, Strategist Michael J. Howell zeros in on the Vietnamese market, where he sees potential for a sharp recovery. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Comfort Delgro (CD): Staycation, Expo and No More Rental Relief, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Singapore's leading taxi operator Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), as he sees potential catalysts on the horizon. In Wilmar: YKA's Pricing &amp; Cheap Rump Stake, events specialist David Blennerhassett returns to look at the listing of its China Agribusiness unit under Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' (YKA), which is seeing strong demand but he finds the real value in the stub value if Wilmar's other assets.In FCT Placement - Well Flagged but Still a Large Deal to Digest,Sumeet Singh revisits the deal dynamics of the Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) planned placement.In SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive,Supun Walpola take an initial look at this upcoming Thai packaging IPO and finds it unattractive short-term. In SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range,Supun Walpola revisits this major Thai packaging IPO, with a more positive tone. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Thai Banks: Down But Coming Back,Brian Freitas takes a look at Thai Banks in light of a gradual opening-up by the country to foreign tourists, albeit in a small way short term.  In Thai Media Spotlight: Collapse or Redemption?, out Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA revisits the Thai Media sector in light of the COVID-19 recovery in the country.In IPO Stalker: SISB's Pandemic Is Sri Trang Gloves' Profits, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back having met with management from two recently IPO'd companies, namely SISB Public Company Limited (SISB TB) (the country's only listed school) and Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB), the world's third-largest rubber glove producer and the hottest IPO on the SET in 2020. In a Smartkarma Original, Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies,Ankit Agrawal, CFA, bring us a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividends. Credit InsightsIn Jababeka: Trade War Beneficiary with Time on Its Side,Derek Silva provides a view from a credit perspective on Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ). In Gajah Tunggal - Tear Sheet, Leonard Law, CFA provides a top-down credit view on one of Indonesia's largest tyre manufacturers. In Alam Sutera - Event Flash - Tender Offer For 2021 And 2022 Notes, credit specialist Trung Nguyen revisits this Indonesian property developer in light of a tender offer for its 2021 and 2022 Notes. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thailand'sToursim Dilemma, Thai Banks, and Wilmar's Stub

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a>.</p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/anwar-makes-his-move-at-last-election-in-sabah-this-week-should-bolster-him-too" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43522" rel="noopener">Anwar Makes His Move at Last; Election in Sabah This Week Should Bolster Him Too,</a> CrossASEAN Chief Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> comments on Anwar's move to form a new Government in Malaysia.</p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gojek-and-grab-a-merger-of-the-super-apps-on-the-offing-we-think-not" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39926" rel="noopener">Gojek and Grab - A Merger of the Super Apps on the Offing? We Think Not,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> takes a look at South East Asia's two leading ride-hailing companies in light of recent talk of a merger of the two Unicorns. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitra-keluarga-mika-margin-expansion-from-covid-19" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43470" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga (MIKA): Margin Expansion from COVID-19</a> comments on one of Indonesia's best quality hospitals in light of COVID-19. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-44-more-turbulence-at-thai-four-new-airports" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42364" rel="noopener">Snippets #44: More Turbulence at THAI, Four New Airports!,</a> out Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on five pieces of interesting news or developments that could impact Thai equities.  </p><p>in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bangkok-s-finest-bangkok-glass-and-bam" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41197" rel="noopener">Bangkok's Finest: Bangkok Glass and BAM,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> follows up with two companies which came to IPO around two years ago, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-glass-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27024:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Glass PCL (BG TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-reckoning-at-quarter-end" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43528" rel="noopener">DBS – Reckoning At Quarter End,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a> ahead of its quarterly results, where he sees the potential for a positive surprise.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-unexciting" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43557" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> revisits this up-and-coming IPO born out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a>. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43464" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Valuation Insights,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> casts his eye over this significant Thai IPO looking at valuations.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/home-improvement-sector-outlook-2h20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43567" rel="noopener">Home Improvement Sector Outlook 2H20,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> provide an update on the home-improvement segment in Thailand and maintain a positive outlook on both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-product-center-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9906:1" rel="noopener">Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-global-house-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19449:1" rel="noopener">Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dohome-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27331:1" rel="noopener">Dohome PCL (DOHOME TB)</a>. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gunkul-profit-from-japan-asset-disposal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43534" rel="noopener">GUNKUL: Profit from Japan Asset Disposal</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunkul-engineering-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15272:1" rel="noopener">Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB)</a> following the disposal of a 67MW solar project in Japan (SCOD in 2022), where it booked special profit of Bt715m. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jkn-await-for-new-rerating-catalyst" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43529" rel="noopener">JKN: Await for New Rerating Catalyst</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jkn-global-media-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24236:1" rel="noopener">JKN Global Media (JKN TB)</a> following the recent surge in the share price and downgrade the company recommendation to HOLD. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-banks-leveraged-to-tourism" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43487" rel="noopener">Thai Banks – Leveraged To Tourism?</a>, banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> revisits the Thai banks as the country prepares to open its borders to foreign arrivals, albeit in a small way to start with.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/top-100-asian-unicorns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43552" rel="noopener">Top 100 Asian Unicorns</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> provides a list with summaries of the top 100 unicorns in Asia (including a number in South East Asia), broken down by the major countries in Asia. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pakuwon-jati-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-3ea61a3d-39e3-4628-b256-4d7b1da56f77" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43496" rel="noopener">Pakuwon Jati - Tear Sheet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:1350" rel="noopener">Lucror Analytics</a> provides us with a bird's eye view of this leading Indonesian Property company from a credit perspective. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.
Macro InsightsIn Anwar Makes His Move at Last; Election in Sabah This Week Should Bolster Him Too, CrossASEAN Chief Economist Prasenjit K. Basu comments on Anwar's move to form a new Government in Malaysia.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Gojek and Grab - A Merger of the Super Apps on the Offing? We Think Not, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh takes a look at South East Asia's two leading ride-hailing companies in light of recent talk of a merger of the two Unicorns. In Mitra Keluarga (MIKA): Margin Expansion from COVID-19 comments on one of Indonesia's best quality hospitals in light of COVID-19. In Snippets #44: More Turbulence at THAI, Four New Airports!, out Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on five pieces of interesting news or developments that could impact Thai equities.  in Bangkok's Finest: Bangkok Glass and BAM,Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA follows up with two companies which came to IPO around two years ago, namely Bangkok Glass PCL (BG TB) and Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB).In DBS – Reckoning At Quarter End, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush revisits DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP) ahead of its quarterly results, where he sees the potential for a positive surprise.In SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting, Sumeet Singh revisits this up-and-coming IPO born out of Siam Cement (SCC TB). In SCG Packaging IPO: Valuation Insights,Arun George casts his eye over this significant Thai IPO looking at valuations.In Home Improvement Sector Outlook 2H20, our friends at Country Group provide an update on the home-improvement segment in Thailand and maintain a positive outlook on both Home Product Center (HMPRO TB),  Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB), and Dohome PCL (DOHOME TB). In GUNKUL: Profit from Japan Asset Disposal, Country Group revisit Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB) following the disposal of a 67MW solar project in Japan (SCOD in 2022), where it booked special profit of Bt715m. In JKN: Await for New Rerating Catalyst, Country Group revisit JKN Global Media (JKN TB) following the recent surge in the share price and downgrade the company recommendation to HOLD. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Thai Banks – Leveraged To Tourism?, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush revisits the Thai banks as the country prepares to open its borders to foreign arrivals, albeit in a small way to start with.  In Top 100 Asian Unicorns, Douglas Kim provides a list with summaries of the top 100 unicorns in Asia (including a number in South East Asia), broken down by the major countries in Asia. Credit InsightsIn Pakuwon Jati - Tear Sheet, Trung Nguyen from Lucror Analytics provides us with a bird's eye view of this leading Indonesian Property company from a credit perspective. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Unicorns & Super Apps, SCG Packaging, and Thai Banks

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<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-sti-macro-bear-pressure-mounting-with-tactical-relief-from-2-400" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42932" rel="noopener">Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400</a> Insight is improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. That Insight was published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-schroeder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381" rel="noopener">Thomas Schroeder</a>.</strong></em></p>
</div>
<hr>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma.</a></p>
</div>
<h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kalbe-farma-klbf-ij-a-nutritional-spin-off" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42533" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - A Nutritional Spin-Off?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits South East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company in light of news that the company is considering spinning off its Nutritionals division to raise around US$500m. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/link-net-tbk-pt-link-ij-summer-migration-at-last" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42829" rel="noopener">Link Net Tbk Pt (LINK IJ) - Summer Migration at Last,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's highest quality high-speed broadband provider following a call with managment, which focused on its recent results, as well as the decision to build its own pole infrastructure to carry its fibre.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singtel-make-the-call" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42900" rel="noopener">SingTel: Make The Call,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> zeros in on Singapore's leading telecom provider and finds deep value appearing in the stock.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-initiation-shrink-wrapping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42967" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> takes a first look at the upcoming spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> and IPO of SCG Packaging, which will get a lot of investor focus given ist size and share in of the packaging market in SE Asia. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-last-chance-before" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42886" rel="noopener">Sembcorp - Last Chance Before...</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> looks at the enormously dilutive rights issue and de-merger of Semcorp Marine. </p>
<p> In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-sti-macro-bear-pressure-mounting-with-tactical-relief-from-2-400" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42932" rel="noopener">Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400,</a> technical analysis specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> works his technical magic on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-straits-times-index-sti" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22902:1" rel="noopener">FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX).</a></p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ratch-3q20-earnings-to-improve-from-overseas-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42789" rel="noopener">RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings to Improve from Overseas Performance</a>, our friend at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB)</a> post its more recent analyst meeting, which left a positive impression.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/b-work-good-dividend-yield-makes-an-attractive-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42782" rel="noopener">B-WORK: Good Dividend Yield Makes an Attractive Investment,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bualuang-office-leasehold-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26187:1" rel="noopener">Bualuang Office Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (B-WORK TB)</a> and takes a positive view. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rbf-the-excessive-outperformance-may-come-to-a-halt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42788" rel="noopener">RBF: The Excessive Outperformance May Come to a Halt,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/r-b-food-supply-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28949:1" rel="noopener">R&amp;B Food Supply PCL (RBF TB)</a> to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price of THB9.25 from THB8.70, implying a downside of 9% from the current price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-acquisition-benefits-are-not-fully-priced-in-strong-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42785" rel="noopener">STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stonehenge-inter-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27353:1" rel="noopener">Stonehenge Inter (STI TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on his target of THB10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dod-strong-performance-deserves-a-re-rating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42676" rel="noopener">DOD: Strong Performance Deserves a Re-Rating,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dod-biotech-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26179:1" rel="noopener">DOD Biotech PCL (DOD TB)</a> to BUY from HOLD based on raising his target price to Bt10.70 from Bt7.55, implying an upside of 26% from the current price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vranda-the-calm-before-challenging-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42781" rel="noopener">VRANDA: The Calm Before Challenging Times,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> has a SELL recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/veranda-resort-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29176:1" rel="noopener">Veranda Resort PCL (VRANDA TB)</a> based on a target price of THB4.30, implying a downside of 26% from the current share price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-results-are-not-stunning-stay-on-hold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42784" rel="noopener">ACE: Results Are Not Stunning, Stay on HOLD,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/absolute-clean-energy-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29155:1" rel="noopener">Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB)</a> to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price to THB3.49 from THB2.64, implying an upside of 8% from the current price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spa-weak-demand-continues-to-pressure-2h20-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42813" rel="noopener">SPA: Weak Demand Continues to Pressure 2H20 Earnings,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> downgrades <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-wellness-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3765:1" rel="noopener">Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB)</a> from BUY to HOLD rating and cut his target price by 31% to THB6.6 to factor in weakening earnings momentum in 2H20. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gunkul-new-60mw-power-plant-to-drive-2h20-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42820" rel="noopener">GUNKUL: New 60MW Power Plant to Drive 2H20 Earnings,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> maintain a BUY rating on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunkul-engineering-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15272:1" rel="noopener">Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB)</a> with a target price of THB3.24 derived using DCF method (WACC 7.8% and TG 1%) implying 11.4x FY20E PER or 0.5x relative PER to Thai utility sector. </p>
<h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/telecom-review-sept-2020-ais-and-asiasoft-get-aggressive-on-gaming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41022" rel="noopener">Telecom Review (Sept 2020): AIS and AsiaSoft Get Aggressive on Gaming,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at gaming, specifically related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asiasoft-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5429:1" rel="noopener">Asiasoft Corp (AS TB)</a> in Thailand. </p>


Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400 Insight is improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. That Insight was published by Thomas Schroeder.



The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.

Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - A Nutritional Spin-Off?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits South East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company in light of news that the company is considering spinning off its Nutritionals division to raise around US$500m. 
In Link Net Tbk Pt (LINK IJ) - Summer Migration at Last, Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's highest quality high-speed broadband provider following a call with managment, which focused on its recent results, as well as the decision to build its own pole infrastructure to carry its fibre.  
In SingTel: Make The Call, David Blennerhassett zeros in on Singapore's leading telecom provider and finds deep value appearing in the stock.
In SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping, Arun George takes a first look at the upcoming spin-off from Siam Cement (SCC TB) and IPO of SCG Packaging, which will get a lot of investor focus given ist size and share in of the packaging market in SE Asia. 
In Sembcorp - Last Chance Before... Travis Lundy looks at the enormously dilutive rights issue and de-merger of Semcorp Marine. 
 In Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400, technical analysis specialist Thomas J. Monaco works his technical magic on the FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX).
In RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings to Improve from Overseas Performance, our friend at Country Group report back on Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB) post its more recent analyst meeting, which left a positive impression.  
In B-WORK: Good Dividend Yield Makes an Attractive Investment, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Bualuang Office Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (B-WORK TB) and takes a positive view. 
In RBF: The Excessive Outperformance May Come to a Halt, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on R&amp;B Food Supply PCL (RBF TB) to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price of THB9.25 from THB8.70, implying a downside of 9% from the current price. 
In STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Stonehenge Inter (STI TB) with a BUY recommendation based on his target of THB10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. 
In DOD: Strong Performance Deserves a Re-Rating, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on DOD Biotech PCL (DOD TB) to BUY from HOLD based on raising his target price to Bt10.70 from Bt7.55, implying an upside of 26% from the current price. 
In VRANDA: The Calm Before Challenging Times, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA has a SELL recommendation on Veranda Resort PCL (VRANDA TB) based on a target price of THB4.30, implying a downside of 26% from the current share price. 
In ACE: Results Are Not Stunning, Stay on HOLD, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB) to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price to THB3.49 from THB2.64, implying an upside of 8% from the current price. 
In SPA: Weak Demand Continues to Pressure 2H20 Earnings, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA downgrades Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB) from BUY to HOLD rating and cut his target price by 31% to THB6.6 to factor in weakening earnings momentum in 2H20. 
In GUNKUL: New 60MW Power Plant to Drive 2H20 Earnings, Country Group maintain a BUY rating on Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB) with a target price of THB3.24 derived using DCF method (WACC 7.8% and TG 1%) implying 11.4x FY20E PER or 0.5x relative PER to Thai utility sector. 
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Telecom Review (Sept 2020): AIS and AsiaSoft Get Aggressive on Gaming, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at gaming, specifically related to Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Asiasoft Corp (AS TB) in Thailand. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkama - Kalbe Spin-Off, SingTel's Deep Value, and Thailand's Gamers

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-pm-muhyiddin-steadily-gains-a-reputation-for-quiet-competence" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41634" rel="noopener">Malaysia: PM Muhyiddin Steadily Gains a Reputation for Quiet Competence,</a> CrossASEAN Cheif Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> zeros in on Malaysian politics with PM scoring important wins.</p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/central-retail-crc-tb-buy-for-looming-recovery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41669" rel="noopener">Central Retail (CRC TB) - Buy for Looming Recovery,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Thailand's leading retailers and finds a brighter few months ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-asii-ij-simmering-recovery-afoot" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41690" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ) - Simmering Recovery Afoot,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest car, motorcycle, and heavy equipment player and sees better days ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-indosari-corpindo-roti-ij-the-breadmaker-cometh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40374" rel="noopener">Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - The Breadmaker Cometh </a>CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread producer. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/unilever-unvr-covid-19-beneficiary-and-discount-to-huvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41525" rel="noopener">Unilever (UNVR): COVID-19 Beneficiary and Discount to HUVR,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> takes a look at one of Indonesia's largest consumer staples players. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sampoerna-hmsp-losing-from-higher-excise-tax" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41521" rel="noopener">Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> zeros in one of Indonesia'slargest cigarette companies and sees some further risk to margins, favouring competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-central-asia-hunkering-down-is-not-helping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41611" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia – Hunkering Down Is Not Helping,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> takes a look at Indonesia's best quality private bank and finds it having tough going. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-rojukiss-a-korean-skincare-high-flyer-of-the-asean-region" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41556" rel="noopener">IPO Radar: Rojukiss, a Korean Skincare High-Flyer of the ASEAN Region,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> zeros in on the IPO of skincare player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rojukiss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29210:1" rel="noopener">Rojukiss (KISS TB).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/stubworld-would-jardines-move-back-to-hk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41692" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Would Jardines Move Back To HK?</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> and asks whether it may consider moving its domicile back to Hong Kong. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/accordia-golf-trust-deal-gets-more-complicated" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41628" rel="noopener">Accordia Golf Trust Deal Gets More Complicated,</a> events driven specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits this lingering privatisation situation.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/all-undemanding-valuation-and-good-growth-prospects-in-shunned-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41756" rel="noopener">ALL: Undemanding Valuation and Good Growth Prospects in Shunned Sector,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/all-inspire-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29177:1" rel="noopener">All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 25% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-good-performance-has-already-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41656" rel="noopener">ASIAN: Good Performance Has Already Priced In,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> downgrade our recommendation to ‘SELL’ from ‘BUY’ with a new target price for 2021E at Bt7.20 (from Bt6.0).</p><div><div id="ember6523">
<div id="ember6524">
<span>In </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delta-covid-19-impact-surprisingly-turned-positive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41672" rel="noopener">DELTA: Covid-19 Impact Surprisingly Turned Positive,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a><span> maintains a HOLD rating on </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a><span> with a new 2021E target price of Bt84.00, up from Bt56.50.</span>
</div>
<div></div>
</div></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-expect-earnings-to-grow-yoy-in-2020-but-has-mostly-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41698" rel="noopener">SYNEX: Expect Earnings to Grow YoY in 2020 but Has Mostly Priced In</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synnex-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8077:1" rel="noopener">Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB)</a> and expect earnings to grow 15%YoY in 2020E amid negative environment in overall spending induced by global widespread of coronavirus. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/philippine-bank-asset-quality-reported-versus-reality-and-relative-value" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41710" rel="noopener">Philippine Bank Asset Quality: Reported Versus Reality and Relative Value,</a> Credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> revisits the Philippine banks and sees some potentially heightened risks ahead.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rizal-commercial-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23143:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sritex-earnings-flash-h1-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41714" rel="noopener">Sritex - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:1350" rel="noopener">Lucror Analytics</a> Credit Specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> reports back on results from Indonesia's leading textile player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japfa-comfeed-earnings-flash-h1-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41715" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:1350" rel="noopener">Lucror Analytics</a> Credit Specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> comments on results from chicken player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ).</a></p>


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Macro InsightsIn Malaysia: PM Muhyiddin Steadily Gains a Reputation for Quiet Competence, CrossASEAN Cheif Economist Prasenjit K. Basu zeros in on Malaysian politics with PM scoring important wins.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Central Retail (CRC TB) - Buy for Looming Recovery, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Thailand's leading retailers and finds a brighter few months ahead. In Astra International (ASII IJ) - Simmering Recovery Afoot,Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest car, motorcycle, and heavy equipment player and sees better days ahead. In Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - The Breadmaker Cometh CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread producer. In Unilever (UNVR): COVID-19 Beneficiary and Discount to HUVR, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko takes a look at one of Indonesia's largest consumer staples players. In Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko zeros in one of Indonesia'slargest cigarette companies and sees some further risk to margins, favouring competitor Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ).In Bank Central Asia – Hunkering Down Is Not Helping,Thomas J. Monaco takes a look at Indonesia's best quality private bank and finds it having tough going. In IPO Radar: Rojukiss, a Korean Skincare High-Flyer of the ASEAN Region, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA zeros in on the IPO of skincare player Rojukiss (KISS TB).In StubWorld: Would Jardines Move Back To HK?, David Blennerhassett zeros in on Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) and asks whether it may consider moving its domicile back to Hong Kong. In Accordia Golf Trust Deal Gets More Complicated, events driven specialist Travis Lundy revisits this lingering privatisation situation.In ALL: Undemanding Valuation and Good Growth Prospects in Shunned Sector,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB) with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 25% from the current price. In ASIAN: Good Performance Has Already Priced In,Country Group downgrade our recommendation to ‘SELL’ from ‘BUY’ with a new target price for 2021E at Bt7.20 (from Bt6.0).

In DELTA: Covid-19 Impact Surprisingly Turned Positive,Country Group maintains a HOLD rating on Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) with a new 2021E target price of Bt84.00, up from Bt56.50.


In SYNEX: Expect Earnings to Grow YoY in 2020 but Has Mostly Priced In, our friends at Country Group revisit Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB) and expect earnings to grow 15%YoY in 2020E amid negative environment in overall spending induced by global widespread of coronavirus. Credit InsightsIn Philippine Bank Asset Quality: Reported Versus Reality and Relative Value, Credit specialist Hank Calenti, CFA revisits the Philippine banks and sees some potentially heightened risks ahead.In Sritex - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,Lucror Analytics Credit Specialist Trung Nguyen reports back on results from Indonesia's leading textile player Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ).In Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results,Lucror Analytics Credit Specialist Trung Nguyen comments on results from chicken player Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ).

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Malaysian Politics, Thai Retail, and Indonesian Staples

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> just released 1H2020 results with a revenue decline of -23% but a net profit increase of +16% helped by the well-timed sale of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> booked in 2Q2020.</p>
<p>Taking out the sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a>, net profit fell by -44% YoY largely due to weaker performance from automotive, heavy equipment, mining, and financial services. </p>
<p>Car sales for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> were down -45% YoY due to COVID-19, with market share at 53% and in 2Q2020 car sales fell by 92% versus 1Q2020.</p>
<p>Motorcycle sales fell by -40% in IH2020 YoY and -80% in 2Q2020 versus 1Q2020, with increased market share of 77% in 1H2020.</p>
<p>Heavy Equipment and financing divisions both saw declines of -29% and 25% in net income respectively, although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> saw some support from its mining businesses.</p>
<p>The company's palm oil business under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-agro-lestari-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4050:1" rel="noopener">Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ)</a> performed extremely well given higher CPO prices, whilst the infrastructure business registered a loss due to lower toll-road revenues due to PSBB measures.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, management expressed caution on the outlook for the rest of the year but we would expect more colour on this from the analyst briefing on 12th August. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>We continue to like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> as one of our top recovery plays in Indonesia for FY21.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> also looks interesting at this juncture given the current 5-year high discount to NAV. </p>
</div>

Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1H2020 results with a revenue decline of -23% but a net profit increase of +16% helped by the well-timed sale of its stake in Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) to Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) booked in 2Q2020.
Taking out the sale of Bank Permata (BNLI IJ), net profit fell by -44% YoY largely due to weaker performance from automotive, heavy equipment, mining, and financial services. 
Car sales for Astra International (ASII IJ) were down -45% YoY due to COVID-19, with market share at 53% and in 2Q2020 car sales fell by 92% versus 1Q2020.
Motorcycle sales fell by -40% in IH2020 YoY and -80% in 2Q2020 versus 1Q2020, with increased market share of 77% in 1H2020.
Heavy Equipment and financing divisions both saw declines of -29% and 25% in net income respectively, although United Tractors (UNTR IJ) saw some support from its mining businesses.
The company's palm oil business under Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ) performed extremely well given higher CPO prices, whilst the infrastructure business registered a loss due to lower toll-road revenues due to PSBB measures.
Unsurprisingly, management expressed caution on the outlook for the rest of the year but we would expect more colour on this from the analyst briefing on 12th August. 

We continue to like Astra International (ASII IJ) as one of our top recovery plays in Indonesia for FY21.  Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) also looks interesting at this juncture given the current 5-year high discount to NAV. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Simmering Recovery Afoot

Indonesia

PT United Tractors Tbk distributes and leases construction machinery including Komatsu, Nissan Diesel, Scania, Bomag, Valmet, and Tadano brands.  The Company also provides contract mining services, and trades and assembles heavy equipment.

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United Tractors (UNTR IJ)

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