Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> announced a buyback of up to 5 trillion rupiah, buying back "up to 20% of shares out."  </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/united-tractors-untr-ij-buyback-sure-to-be-impactful" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72838" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful</a> I said the buyback would be smaller than the headlines, but still likely quite impactful. </li>
<li>On Day 1, shares rose 5% to IDR 28,275. Since then the stock is up an additional 22%. Now we have a month left. There may be more juice still. </li>
</ul>


In mid-July, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a buyback of up to 5 trillion rupiah, buying back "up to 20% of shares out."  
In United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful I said the buyback would be smaller than the headlines, but still likely quite impactful. 
On Day 1, shares rose 5% to IDR 28,275. Since then the stock is up an additional 22%. Now we have a month left. There may be more juice still. 


United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - One Month To Go

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> announced a large share buyback. It's a big buyback but perhaps not as big as the headlines (which say "up to 20%"). </li>
<li>The buyback is for 5 trillion rupiah which is about 5% of market cap, and will be conducted on-market over the next three months.</li>
<li>Looking at the early market reaction, my opinion is that the market does not seem to understand the consequences.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a large share buyback. It's a big buyback but perhaps not as big as the headlines (which say "up to 20%"). 
The buyback is for 5 trillion rupiah which is about 5% of market cap, and will be conducted on-market over the next three months.
Looking at the early market reaction, my opinion is that the market does not seem to understand the consequences.


United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a> announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.</li>
<li>The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.</li>
<li>Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 


Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.</li>
<li>A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.</li>
<li>JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.
A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.
JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is coming up cheap after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) is coming up cheap after United Tractors (UNTR IJ) positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. 
Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

Indonesia

PT United Tractors Tbk distributes and leases construction machinery including Komatsu, Nissan Diesel, Scania, Bomag, Valmet, and Tadano brands.  The Company also provides contract mining services, and trades and assembles heavy equipment.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ)