Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Buy-side investment professional focused on listed equities, combining bottom-up fundamental analysis with macroeconomic and capital allocation perspectives. I focus on intrinsic value, valuation, catalysts, downside risk, and the gap between fundamentals and market expectations, with the objective of identifying mispriced opportunities and translating research into disciplined investment decisions. 15+ years of experience across Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance, private investment, and independent research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.</li>
<li>Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.</li>
<li>The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.</li>
</ul>


September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.
Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.
The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.


Astra International (ASII): A Discount on Paper, a Cash-Earnings Test in Practice