High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Much of UnitedHealth’s business is just freeriding the US healthcare system.</li><li>To some extent it could even be called parasitic. 40% of its revenues come from government programs.</li><li>The most important one is Medicare Advantage (MA), which was originally designed to lower costs through the use of private carriers and their competition.</li></ul>

Much of UnitedHealth’s business is just freeriding the US healthcare system.To some extent it could even be called parasitic. 40% of its revenues come from government programs.The most important one is Medicare Advantage (MA), which was originally designed to lower costs through the use of private carriers and their competition.

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)</li><li>Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.</li><li>This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.</li></ul>

The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

<ul>
<li>UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is set to release its second-quarter results on Friday, the 14th.</li>
<li>However, its Q2 report is tough to call, we warn investors that volatility will likely surface within the coming days.</li>
<li>UnitedHealth is a surreal earnings beater, but it's a surreal beater.</li>
</ul>


UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is set to release its second-quarter results on Friday, the 14th.
However, its Q2 report is tough to call, we warn investors that volatility will likely surface within the coming days.
UnitedHealth is a surreal earnings beater, but it's a surreal beater.


UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route

<ul>
<li>UnitedHealth Group Inc.'s first-quarter earnings report might settle lower than anticipated as prices on long-term solutions have softened.</li>
<li>The company has a rich history of beating earnings estimates, and its cash-based earnings exceeded its accrual-based income in 2022.</li>
<li>UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is set to release its first-quarter earnings results before trading opens on Friday, the 14th.</li>
</ul>


UnitedHealth Group Inc.'s first-quarter earnings report might settle lower than anticipated as prices on long-term solutions have softened.
The company has a rich history of beating earnings estimates, and its cash-based earnings exceeded its accrual-based income in 2022.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is set to release its first-quarter earnings results before trading opens on Friday, the 14th.


UnitedHealth's Q1 Earnings: Don't Get Too Excited

<ul>
<li>UnitedHealth Group's recent drawdown presents a lucrative investment opportunity to value-seeking investors.</li>
<li>The stock's year-to-date slump is likely due to the financial markets' recent risk-on appetite and the anticipation that insurance premiums could suffer from softer pricing in 2023.</li>
<li>Despite a recent financial market recovery and a comprehensive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/search?q=UNH/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earnings beat</a>, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's (NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UNH</a>) stock finds itself lingering among the year-to-date losers.</li>
</ul>


UnitedHealth Group's recent drawdown presents a lucrative investment opportunity to value-seeking investors.
The stock's year-to-date slump is likely due to the financial markets' recent risk-on appetite and the anticipation that insurance premiums could suffer from softer pricing in 2023.
Despite a recent financial market recovery and a comprehensive earnings beat, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's (NYSE:UNH) stock finds itself lingering among the year-to-date losers.


UnitedHealth: Take Advantage Of Its Stock's Recent Drawdown

United States

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated owns and manages organized health systems in the United States and internationally.  The Company provides employers products and resources to plan and administer employee benefit programs.  UnitedHealth also serves the health needs of older Americans, provides specialized care services, and provides health care information and research to providers and payers.

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Unitedhealth Group (UNH US)

I'd Stay Far Away from UnitedHealth.

Much of UnitedHealth’s business is just freeriding the US healthcare system. To some extent it could even be called parasitic. 40% of its revenues...

Fallacy Alarm

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022. This article is a repeat of...

Value Investing

UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is set to release its second-quarter results on Friday, the 14th. However, its Q2 report is tough to call, we warn...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

UnitedHealth's Q1 Earnings: Don't Get Too Excited

UnitedHealth Group Inc.'s first-quarter earnings report might settle lower than anticipated as prices on long-term solutions have softened.

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

UnitedHealth: Take Advantage Of Its Stock's Recent Drawdown

The stock's year-to-date slump is likely due to the financial markets' recent risk-on appetite and the anticipation that insurance premiums could...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)