Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.</li>
<li>Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.</li>
<li>Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.</li>
</ul>


The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.
Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.
Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.


India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UPL Limited announced a restructuring plan on feb 20, 2026 to merge its Indian and international crop protection operations into a newly listed pure-play entity, UPL Global.</li>
<li>This move simplifies a complex conglomerate structure to capture distinct growth opportunities and strategic agility amidst normalising channel demand and fluctuating global agricultural prices.</li>
<li>It unlocks value by enabling independent capital raising and clearer price discovery, but execution remains exposed to strict regulatory approvals and global macroeconomic headwinds</li>
</ul>


UPL Limited announced a restructuring plan on feb 20, 2026 to merge its Indian and international crop protection operations into a newly listed pure-play entity, UPL Global.
This move simplifies a complex conglomerate structure to capture distinct growth opportunities and strategic agility amidst normalising channel demand and fluctuating global agricultural prices.
It unlocks value by enabling independent capital raising and clearer price discovery, but execution remains exposed to strict regulatory approvals and global macroeconomic headwinds


Event Driven: UPL’s Restructuring ~ Unlocking SOTP Value or Masking a Heavy Debt Overhang?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>China's Politburo formalized "anti-involution" policy in July 2024, escalating through 2025 to mandate capacity cuts, retire aging petrochemical plants, and penalize destructive price competition in chemicals and beyond.</li>
<li>China accounts for roughly 46% of global chemical production. Structural capacity rationalization there directly shifts pricing power, trade flows, and market share for Indian chemical players competing on cost, complexity.</li>
<li>Companies with complex chemistry moats, low Chinese raw-material dependence, and long-term customer contracts stand to gain most; commodity-adjacent players face a more uneven ride. </li>
</ul>


China's Politburo formalized "anti-involution" policy in July 2024, escalating through 2025 to mandate capacity cuts, retire aging petrochemical plants, and penalize destructive price competition in chemicals and beyond.
China accounts for roughly 46% of global chemical production. Structural capacity rationalization there directly shifts pricing power, trade flows, and market share for Indian chemical players competing on cost, complexity.
Companies with complex chemistry moats, low Chinese raw-material dependence, and long-term customer contracts stand to gain most; commodity-adjacent players face a more uneven ride. 


What China's Anti-Involution Drive Means for India's Chemical Sector?

<ul>
<li>China has officially announced the cancellation of export tax rebates (typically 9%) for a broad range of pesticides, including Glufosinate and Acephate, effective April 1, 2026.</li>
<li>This policy shift effectively raises the floor price for Chinese exports by 9%, easing the "dumping" pressure that has suppressed Indian agrochemical margins for nearly three years.</li>
<li>One should monitor Q1 2026 volume surges as global buyers front-load orders before the rebate exit, providing a tactical window for Indian incumbents to regain pricing power.</li>
</ul>


China has officially announced the cancellation of export tax rebates (typically 9%) for a broad range of pesticides, including Glufosinate and Acephate, effective April 1, 2026.
This policy shift effectively raises the floor price for Chinese exports by 9%, easing the "dumping" pressure that has suppressed Indian agrochemical margins for nearly three years.
One should monitor Q1 2026 volume surges as global buyers front-load orders before the rebate exit, providing a tactical window for Indian incumbents to regain pricing power.


Analysis Of "China Cancels Export Tax Rebates on Pesticides"

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

India

UPL Limited is an Indian multinational agrochemical and specialty chemicals company that manufactures and markets a comprehensive range of sustainable agriculture products and solutions. These include conventional crop protection products like pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, and insecticides, as well as seeds, bio-solutions, and post-harvest solutions. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on May 29, 1969.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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UPL (UPLL IN)

EM Materials: The Recovery Trade

Materials is emerging from deep under-ownership, combining low positioning with the strongest positive rotation in GEM. Inflows into China and S....

Steven Holden

Event Driven: UPL’s Restructuring ~ Unlocking SOTP Value or Masking a Heavy Debt Overhang?

UPL Limited to merge Indian and international crop protection operations into UPL Global, simplifying structure and unlocking value, but facing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

What China's Anti-Involution Drive Means for India's Chemical Sector?

China's "anti-involution" policy will reshape global chemical production, benefiting companies with complex chemistry moats and long-term...

Nimish Maheshwari

Analysis Of "China Cancels Export Tax Rebates on Pesticides"

China cancels export tax rebates on pesticides, raising prices by 9% and potentially benefiting Indian agrochemical companies.

Nimish Maheshwari

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Materials: The Recovery Trade

Materials is emerging from deep under-ownership, combining low positioning with the strongest positive rotation in GEM. Inflows into China and S....

Steven Holden

Event Driven: UPL’s Restructuring ~ Unlocking SOTP Value or Masking a Heavy Debt Overhang?

​UPL Limited to merge Indian and international crop protection operations into UPL Global, simplifying structure and unlocking value, but facing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

What China's Anti-Involution Drive Means for India's Chemical Sector?

​China's "anti-involution" policy will reshape global chemical production, benefiting companies with complex chemistry moats and long-term...

Nimish Maheshwari

Analysis Of "China Cancels Export Tax Rebates on Pesticides"

​China cancels export tax rebates on pesticides, raising prices by 9% and potentially benefiting Indian agrochemical companies.

Nimish Maheshwari

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

UPL Limited to merge Indian and international crop protection operations into UPL Global, simplifying structure and unlocking value, but facing...

China's "anti-involution" policy will reshape global chemical production, benefiting companies with complex chemistry moats and long-term...

China cancels export tax rebates on pesticides, raising prices by 9% and potentially benefiting Indian agrochemical companies.