Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>UPL Limited's Q4 and FY 2024-25 results reflected robust revenue growth, substantial margin expansion, a return to profitability and significant debt reduction.</li>
<li>This was supported by strong operational execution and strategic initiatives across its global markets.</li>
<li>Leverage improved significantly, on account of much lower net debt and higher earnings.</li>
</ul>


UPL Limited's Q4 and FY 2024-25 results reflected robust revenue growth, substantial margin expansion, a return to profitability and significant debt reduction.
This was supported by strong operational execution and strategic initiatives across its global markets.
Leverage improved significantly, on account of much lower net debt and higher earnings.


UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

<ul>
<li>Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange.</li>
<li>It is the fifth-largest generic agrochemical company in the world (after Bayer, Dupont, Syngenta and BASF), with revenues of over USD 5.2 bn in FY 2023-24 (following the acquisition of Arysta LifeScience in 2019 for USD 4.2 bn).</li>
<li>The bond issuer, UPL Corp, is 78% owned by UPL Limited, with TPG and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority each holding 11% stakes. UPL Limited is 27.9% owned by the family of Rajnikant Shroff, who is known as the Crop Protection King.</li>
</ul>


Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange.
It is the fifth-largest generic agrochemical company in the world (after Bayer, Dupont, Syngenta and BASF), with revenues of over USD 5.2 bn in FY 2023-24 (following the acquisition of Arysta LifeScience in 2019 for USD 4.2 bn).
The bond issuer, UPL Corp, is 78% owned by UPL Limited, with TPG and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority each holding 11% stakes. UPL Limited is 27.9% owned by the family of Rajnikant Shroff, who is known as the Crop Protection King.


UPL Limited - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<ul>
<li>We initiate our coverage on Health and Happiness International Holding Limited (H&amp;H)’s BTSDF 9.125% 24Jul2028.</li>
<li>H&amp;H has refinanced USD320m of 2026 notes with the new USD300m of 2028 notes at a 9.125% coupon. The new bonds help extend its debt maturity and lower financing cost.</li>
<li>The bonds offer diversification and a chance to invest back in China after the fallout in the property sector. We assign an OVERWEIGHT recommendation.</li>
</ul>


We initiate our coverage on Health and Happiness International Holding Limited (H&amp;H)’s BTSDF 9.125% 24Jul2028.
H&amp;H has refinanced USD320m of 2026 notes with the new USD300m of 2028 notes at a 9.125% coupon. The new bonds help extend its debt maturity and lower financing cost.
The bonds offer diversification and a chance to invest back in China after the fallout in the property sector. We assign an OVERWEIGHT recommendation.


Leonard Law, CFA

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Motors, UPL Limited, Nissan Motor</li>
<li>UST yields plunged on Friday, led by the front end, as the market repriced expectations for Fed easing following a weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report. As of Friday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 61 bps of rate cuts over the next three meetings in 2025 (vs. 33 bps as of Thursday). The UST curve bull steepened aggressively, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 28 bps to 3.68%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 16 bps to 4.22%.</li>
<li>Equities retreated owing to the weak jobs numbers, continued tariff concerns, as well as after US President Donald Trump said the US was moving two nuclear submarines in response to “provocative” statements by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.6% to 6,238, while the Nasdaq was down 2.2% at 20,650.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Motors, UPL Limited, Nissan Motor
UST yields plunged on Friday, led by the front end, as the market repriced expectations for Fed easing following a weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report. As of Friday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 61 bps of rate cuts over the next three meetings in 2025 (vs. 33 bps as of Thursday). The UST curve bull steepened aggressively, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 28 bps to 3.68%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 16 bps to 4.22%.
Equities retreated owing to the weak jobs numbers, continued tariff concerns, as well as after US President Donald Trump said the US was moving two nuclear submarines in response to “provocative” statements by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.6% to 6,238, while the Nasdaq was down 2.2% at 20,650.


India

UPL Ltd. manufactures, distributes and exports off-patent agrochemicals. The Company also manufactures phosphorus & phosphorus-based compounds and its products include herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, fumigants and rodenticides. United Phosphorus also manufactures industrial chemicals, specialty chemicals and chloralkaline products

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UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

UPL Limited's Q4 and FY 2024-25 results reflected robust revenue growth, substantial margin expansion, a return to profitability and...

Lucror Analytics

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

UPL Limited - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange. It is the fifth-largest generic...

Lucror Analytics

Health & Happiness: On Deleveraging Path

Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Bondcritic

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Motors, UPL Limited,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

UPL Limited's Q4 and FY 2024-25 results reflected robust revenue growth, substantial margin expansion, a return to profitability and...

Lucror Analytics

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

UPL Limited - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange. It is the fifth-largest generic...

Lucror Analytics

Health & Happiness: On Deleveraging Path

​Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Bondcritic

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Motors, UPL Limited,...

Lucror Analytics

Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....