Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs</li>
<li>The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” </li>
<li>Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform</li>
</ul>


As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs
The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” 
Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform


<ul>
<li>The rally in Oil has taken us through the key levels that were in focus up to $89.58</li>
<li>The weekly close is particularly constructive as we posted a bullish outside week</li>
<li>This should open the way for further gains to the tune of some 20%-25% over the coming weeks / months</li>
</ul>


The rally in Oil has taken us through the key levels that were in focus up to $89.58
The weekly close is particularly constructive as we posted a bullish outside week
This should open the way for further gains to the tune of some 20%-25% over the coming weeks / months


The Crude Awakening – Oil’s Break Higher

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields</li>
<li>As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside </li>
<li>The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields
As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside 
The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields


Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

<ul>
<li>The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs</li>
<li>These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money</li>
<li>The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago</li>
</ul>


The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs
These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money
The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago


<ul>
<li>The break in US 10 year yield has opened the way for a move to at least 2% in the near term</li>
<li>It has arrived as Oil rallied and makes new trend highs</li>
<li>Given the long-term setup on Oil, a refreshed long term chart of US 10 year yield suggests much more aggressive targets for the course of this year</li>
</ul>


The break in US 10 year yield has opened the way for a move to at least 2% in the near term
It has arrived as Oil rallied and makes new trend highs
Given the long-term setup on Oil, a refreshed long term chart of US 10 year yield suggests much more aggressive targets for the course of this year


US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

The Crude Awakening – Oil’s Break Higher

The break higher n Crude has come with strong bullish price action. Further gains towards $115+ are likely over the coming weeks and months

Shyam Devani

Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

A quick look at the support zone on US 30Y and 10Y yields as we prepare for the FOMC. If anything, a big if, we might be seeing signs of a rise in...

Shyam Devani

US Equities with Rising Yields and Oil

The rise in yields and Oil seem to be having a negative impact on equities...again. This was also seen a few months ago which is being compared to...

Shyam Devani

US Yields – Onwards and Upwards

The rise in US 10 year yield has arrived as Oil makes new trend highs. Both markets look to trend further and this note looks at both short term...

Shyam Devani