Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 16th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,863m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Sanrio, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Keyence, Softbank, Advantest, Lasertec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 16th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,863m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Sanrio, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Keyence, Softbank, Advantest, Lasertec.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 16th): SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">TRYT (9164 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group / (CG US)</a> at JPY880, a 34.6% premium to last close and a 135.3% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Despite 26.7% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>The chance of a competing proposal is low, as Carlyle’s offer was the highest in the auction. EQT has provided an irrevocable (60.00% ownership ratio), which ensures a done deal.  </li>
</ul>



TRYT (9164 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY880, a 34.6% premium to last close and a 135.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
Despite 26.7% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
The chance of a competing proposal is low, as Carlyle’s offer was the highest in the auction. EQT has provided an irrevocable (60.00% ownership ratio), which ensures a done deal.  


Tryt (9164 JP): Carlyle’s JPY880 Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">TRYT (9164 JP)</a> shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.</li>
<li>The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.</li>
<li>The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.</li>
</ul>



TRYT (9164 JP) shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.
The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.
The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.


Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a>, a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timee-215a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150750" rel="noopener">Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timee-215a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150848" rel="noopener">Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Timee is attractively valued at the IPO price range in the context of the forecasted growth. </li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
We previously discussed the IPO in Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Timee is attractively valued at the IPO price range in the context of the forecasted growth. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a>, a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timee-215a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150750" rel="noopener">Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
In Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.


Japan

UT Group Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  The Group specializes in semiconductor and LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) related products and provides outsourcing services to electronics manufacturers.

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UT Group Co Ltd (2146 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 16th): SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tryt (9164 JP): Carlyle’s JPY880 Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Kudos to EQT as an auction process resulted in a higher-than-expected offer. An attractive offer and EQT's irrevocable ensure a done deal.

Arun George

Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price...

Arun George

Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Timee is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Our analysis suggests that Timee is attractively valued at the IPO price range in the context of...

Arun George

Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and...

Arun George

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