External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>INCO’s revenue throughout FY23 stood in-line with our estimates of USD1,209.7mn, coming in at USD1,232.3 (reflecting 101.9% of MNCS' estimate), growing by +4.5% YoY on solid production performance.</li><li>Production jumped +17.7% YoY to 70.7k tons, credits due to their impeccable maintenance implementation throughout the year.</li><li>The bottom-line stood at USD274.3mn, overshooting our estimate of USD221.2mn for the year (reflecting 124.0%), growing by +36.9% YoY despite ASP slump (-10.4% YoY to USD17.3k/ton in FY23).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INCO’s revenue throughout FY23 stood in-line with our estimates of USD1,209.7mn, coming in at USD1,232.3 (reflecting 101.9% of MNCS' estimate), growing by +4.5% YoY on solid production performance.Production jumped +17.7% YoY to 70.7k tons, credits due to their impeccable maintenance implementation throughout the year.The bottom-line stood at USD274.3mn, overshooting our estimate of USD221.2mn for the year (reflecting 124.0%), growing by +36.9% YoY despite ASP slump (-10.4% YoY to USD17.3k/ton in FY23).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INCO IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 20, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We expect INCO’s FY24F production volume to be sustained similar as FY23F at 70k tons. </li><li>We trim our FY24F earnings forecast by 28% due to our lower LME price assumption of US$17k/t (prev. US$19k/t).</li><li>Maintain Buy but with a lower DCF-based TP of Rp6,500 due to our lower FY24F earnings forecast given lower ASP assumptions.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect INCO’s FY24F production volume to be sustained similar as FY23F at 70k tons. We trim our FY24F earnings forecast by 28% due to our lower LME price assumption of US$17k/t (prev. US$19k/t).Maintain Buy but with a lower DCF-based TP of Rp6,500 due to our lower FY24F earnings forecast given lower ASP assumptions.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vale Indonesia (INCO.IJ) - Weak Nickel Price to Hit FY24 Margin

<ul><li>While INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6 mn (-25.3% qoq/ +193% yoy), its 9M23 net profit of USD221mn (+31.3% yoy) is broadly in-line with ours and above consensus forecast (at 77.1%/ 82.3% of 2023F).</li><li>We maintain our 2023-24F earnings forecasts, which are already based on conservative nickel price outlook, and retain Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based TP of IDR7,000</li><li>9M23 earnings were broadly in-line with our 2023F but above consensus. INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6mn (-25.3% qoq/ 193% yoy), reflecting the drop in nickel prices, with ASP falling to USD16,204/ton (-9.8% qoq/ -9.2% yoy).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6 mn (-25.3% qoq/ +193% yoy), its 9M23 net profit of USD221mn (+31.3% yoy) is broadly in-line with ours and above consensus forecast (at 77.1%/ 82.3% of 2023F).We maintain our 2023-24F earnings forecasts, which are already based on conservative nickel price outlook, and retain Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based TP of IDR7,0009M23 earnings were broadly in-line with our 2023F but above consensus. INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6mn (-25.3% qoq/ 193% yoy), reflecting the drop in nickel prices, with ASP falling to USD16,204/ton (-9.8% qoq/ -9.2% yoy).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Lower 3Q23 Profit, but In-Line 9M23

<ul><li>INCO’s performance was robust in 1H23 amid normalizing nickel prices, with earnings reaching USD168 mn, up 12% yoy, which was above our estimate (63.7%) and the consensus (62.7%).</li><li>INCO was able to maintain production at 16,922 tons (+0.9% qoq), bringing the 1H23 production volume to 33,691 tons (+27.6% yoy) or reaching 48.1% of INCO’s FY23 target of 70k tons. Maintain BUY.</li><li>1H23 earnings above our estimate and the consensus. INCO’s performance was robust in 1H23 amid normalizing nickel prices, with earnings reaching USD168 mn, up 12% yoy, thanks to improving revenues from higher sales volume during this period</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INCO’s performance was robust in 1H23 amid normalizing nickel prices, with earnings reaching USD168 mn, up 12% yoy, which was above our estimate (63.7%) and the consensus (62.7%).INCO was able to maintain production at 16,922 tons (+0.9% qoq), bringing the 1H23 production volume to 33,691 tons (+27.6% yoy) or reaching 48.1% of INCO’s FY23 target of 70k tons. Maintain BUY.1H23 earnings above our estimate and the consensus. INCO’s performance was robust in 1H23 amid normalizing nickel prices, with earnings reaching USD168 mn, up 12% yoy, thanks to improving revenues from higher sales volume during this periodContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Down but Still Impressive

<ul><li>INCO is the only nickel company in Indonesia with its ASP directly linked to the LME price, and although the LME price declined by around 14% qoq in 2Q23, the NPI price fell even further by almost 20% qoq.</li><li>As such, we believe INCO may achieve better margins than NPI producers.</li><li>We keep INCO as our top pick in the sector although we expect there will be a short-term overhang on its share price as a result of the ongoing divestment process.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INCO is the only nickel company in Indonesia with its ASP directly linked to the LME price, and although the LME price declined by around 14% qoq in 2Q23, the NPI price fell even further by almost 20% qoq.As such, we believe INCO may achieve better margins than NPI producers.We keep INCO as our top pick in the sector although we expect there will be a short-term overhang on its share price as a result of the ongoing divestment process.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Best Class 1 Proxy

Indonesia

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk produces nickel in matte, an intermediate product, from lateritic ores at its integrated mining and processing facilities near Soroako, Sulawesi

Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO IJ)

INCO IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 20, 2024

INCO’s revenue throughout FY23 stood in-line with our estimates of USD1,209.7mn, coming in at USD1,232.3 (reflecting 101.9% of MNCS' estimate)

MNC Sekuritas

Vale Indonesia (INCO.IJ) - Weak Nickel Price to Hit FY24 Margin

We expect INCO’s FY24F production volume to be sustained similar as FY23F at 70k tons. We trim our FY24F earnings forecast by 28% due to our lower...

BRI Danareksa Research

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Lower 3Q23 Profit, but In-Line 9M23

While INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6 mn (-25.3% qoq/ +193% yoy), its 9M23 net profit of USD221mn (+31.3% yoy) is broadly in-line with ours...

BRI Danareksa Research

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Down but Still Impressive

INCO’s performance was robust in 1H23 amid normalizing nickel prices, with earnings reaching USD168 mn, up 12% yoy, which was above our estimate...

BRI Danareksa Research

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Best Class 1 Proxy

We keep INCO as our top pick in the sector although we expect there will be a short-term overhang on its share price as a result of the ongoing...

BRI Danareksa Research