Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Vale Indonesia: Potential Lull Before Big Transition For Pure Nickel Play

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>INCO's rally could slow as the industry outlook remains weak and its ongoing major operational transformation may not be fully derisked and priced in until well into 2026 </li>
<li>Q2/25 remained challenging with revenue inline but a major net income miss, as weak nickel offset rising volume and strong cost control, with margins and ROE near zero</li>
<li>While the 2025E P/B of 0.9x has priced in a large degree of industry distress, we still see risks of stagnation for the prices of both nickel and INCO</li>
</ul>


INCO's rally could slow as the industry outlook remains weak and its ongoing major operational transformation may not be fully derisked and priced in until well into 2026 
Q2/25 remained challenging with revenue inline but a major net income miss, as weak nickel offset rising volume and strong cost control, with margins and ROE near zero
While the 2025E P/B of 0.9x has priced in a large degree of industry distress, we still see risks of stagnation for the prices of both nickel and INCO


Vale Indonesia: Struggle Against Weak Nickel Continues

Vale Indonesia Tbk

Vale Indonesia: Struggle Against Weak Nickel Continues