Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The iron ore cost curve has risen by 5-10 USD/ton since the blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, which has put upward pressure on diesel prices (15%-20% of mining costs).</li>
<li>Chinese blast furnace capacity utilization is now trending towards 90%, leading to mill margins inflecting into positive territory, based on commentary provided by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> in its Q1 results.</li>
<li>Iran's steel/iron ore production (30/~45 million tons respectively) has stalled, and Simandou's ramp-up guidance (10-15 million tons for FY26) is slower than initially anticipated by the market. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore cost curve has risen by 5-10 USD/ton since the blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, which has put upward pressure on diesel prices (15%-20% of mining costs).
Chinese blast furnace capacity utilization is now trending towards 90%, leading to mill margins inflecting into positive territory, based on commentary provided by Vale (VALE US) in its Q1 results.
Iran's steel/iron ore production (30/~45 million tons respectively) has stalled, and Simandou's ramp-up guidance (10-15 million tons for FY26) is slower than initially anticipated by the market. 


Iron Ore: Simandou Supply Disappoints/ What's Happening To The Cost Curve/ Chinese Mills Profitable?

Brazil

Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in metals and mining, and one of the largest logistics operators in Brazil. It is a leading global producer of iron ore and nickel, also producing copper, manganese, ferroalloys, and other base metals. The company operates integrated logistics systems including railways, maritime terminals, and ports. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the company was founded in 1942.

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Vale (VALE3 BR)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength...

Vermilion Research

EM Equity Strategy: Overweight BRIC

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership. In addition...

Vermilion Research

Iron Ore: Simandou Supply Disappoints/ What's Happening To The Cost Curve/ Chinese Mills Profitable?

China's mill margins are turning positive, but watch the risks: diesel shortages are squeezing the cost curve, and Simandou supply is...

Sameer Taneja

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