Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.</li>
<li>Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.</li>
<li>Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.</li>
</ul>


Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.
Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.
Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.


Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Vale S.A.'s third-quarter 2025 results reflect both progress and challenges as the company continues to navigate complex market dynamics and pursue strategic growth initiatives.</li><li>In terms of operational performance, Vale delivered strong results across its three primary commodities: iron ore, copper, and nickel.</li><li>Iron ore production reached 94 million tons, a 4% year-on-year increase, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018.</li></ul>

Vale S.A.'s third-quarter 2025 results reflect both progress and challenges as the company continues to navigate complex market dynamics and pursue strategic growth initiatives.In terms of operational performance, Vale delivered strong results across its three primary commodities: iron ore, copper, and nickel.Iron ore production reached 94 million tons, a 4% year-on-year increase, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018.

Vale’s New Iron Ore Playbook: Smarter Logistics, Higher Prices, & a Bigger Global Edge!

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>We provide a comprehensive introduction to the iron ore sector, covering the drivers and a view of the commodity in the short run. </li>
<li>We look at eleven listed names in the space ( from large-cap miners to the juniors deriving a vast majority of their revenues from ore) and list our favorite miners.</li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> for its capital return in large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a>  in midcaps, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mount-gibson-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19043:1" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU)</a>  in junior miners<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mount-gibson-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19043:1" rel="noopener">.</a> </li>
</ul>


We provide a comprehensive introduction to the iron ore sector, covering the drivers and a view of the commodity in the short run. 
We look at eleven listed names in the space ( from large-cap miners to the juniors deriving a vast majority of their revenues from ore) and list our favorite miners.
We like Vale (VALE US) for its capital return in large caps, Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)  in midcaps, and Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU)  in junior miners. 


Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.</li>
<li>While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.</li>
<li>The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.</li>
</ul>


Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.
While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.
The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.


Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

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Vale (VALE US)

Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Vale trims iron ore output, doubles down on decarbonized steel trends, and advances a Sudbury copper partnership as supply tightens.

Mint Finance

Vale’s New Iron Ore Playbook: Smarter Logistics, Higher Prices, & a Bigger Global Edge!

Vale S.A.'s third-quarter 2025 results reflect both progress and challenges as the company continues to navigate complex market dynamics and...

Baptista Research

Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector

We initiate on the iron ore space with a primer and provide our top picks among the eleven listed names we look at. Look out for detailed...

Sameer Taneja

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Vale: A valuation paradox

Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Vale trims iron ore output, doubles down on decarbonized steel trends, and advances a Sudbury copper partnership as supply tightens.

Mint Finance

Vale’s New Iron Ore Playbook: Smarter Logistics, Higher Prices, & a Bigger Global Edge!

Vale S.A.'s third-quarter 2025 results reflect both progress and challenges as the company continues to navigate complex market dynamics and...

Baptista Research

Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector

We initiate on the iron ore space with a primer and provide our top picks among the eleven listed names we look at. Look out for detailed...

Sameer Taneja

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Vale: A valuation paradox

​Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...

Rahul Jain

Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...