Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US export base oils price premium to feedstock/heating oil prices holds in narrow range even as outright prices fall.</li><li>Lower export prices could reflect concern about availability of lingering or additional supplies if domestic demand lags expectations.</li><li>Lower export prices follow unusually steady outright prices and steadier differentials vs VGO in first two months of 2025.</li></ul>

US export base oils price premium to feedstock/heating oil prices holds in narrow range even as outright prices fall.Lower export prices could reflect concern about availability of lingering or additional supplies if domestic demand lags expectations.Lower export prices follow unusually steady outright prices and steadier differentials vs VGO in first two months of 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 March

<ul><li>US base oils demand typically gets seasonal boost from around this time of the year.</li><li>Any such pick-up in demand in coming weeks could get further support following signs that sustained dip in domestic consumption is bottoming out.</li><li>Domestic demand in Q4 2024 rises from year-earlier levels for first time in two years, falls less than usual from previous quarter.</li></ul>

US base oils demand typically gets seasonal boost from around this time of the year.Any such pick-up in demand in coming weeks could get further support following signs that sustained dip in domestic consumption is bottoming out.Domestic demand in Q4 2024 rises from year-earlier levels for first time in two years, falls less than usual from previous quarter.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 March

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.</li><li>Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.</li><li>Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

<ul><li>Base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in Asia and Europe, pointing to tighter supply-demand fundamentals.</li><li>US base oils premium to VGO/heating oil stays in narrower range, lagging rise in Asia and Europe.</li><li>Dynamic points to diverging fundamentals between US and other regions.</li></ul>

Base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in Asia and Europe, pointing to tighter supply-demand fundamentals.US base oils premium to VGO/heating oil stays in narrower range, lagging rise in Asia and Europe.Dynamic points to diverging fundamentals between US and other regions.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 10 March

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Balancing act. As the ag industry is preparing for the planting season, an early look at 2025 expectations by Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor offers a mixed bag.</li><li>On one hand, after a two-year decline, net and cash farm income are expected to increase Y/Y in 2025.</li><li>On the other hand, the increase will be mostly due to an increase in government payments. </li></ul>

Balancing act. As the ag industry is preparing for the planting season, an early look at 2025 expectations by Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor offers a mixed bag.On one hand, after a two-year decline, net and cash farm income are expected to increase Y/Y in 2025.On the other hand, the increase will be mostly due to an increase in government payments. 

Mat-Chem Notes - Tariff Concerns Proliferate as Geopolitics Remain Center Stage

United States

Valvoline Inc. manufactures and distributes automotive lubricants and chemicals. The Company offers motor oil, additives, antifreeze, brake fluid, and grease products. Valvoline also owns the oil change and express care chains of car repair centers.

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Valvoline (VVV US)

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 March

US export base oils price premium to feedstock/heating oil prices holds in narrow range even as outright prices fall. Lower export prices could...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 March

US base oils demand typically gets seasonal boost from around this time of the year. Any such pick-up in demand in coming weeks could get further...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025. Europe Group II prices flip to premium to...

Base Oil News

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 10 March

Base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in Asia and Europe, pointing to tighter supply-demand fundamentals. US base oils...

Base Oil News

Mat-Chem Notes - Tariff Concerns Proliferate as Geopolitics Remain Center Stage

Balancing act. As the ag industry is preparing for the planting season, an early look at 2025 expectations by Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly...

Water Tower Research

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