Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold has staged a relative breakout against the S&amp;P 500 and 60/40 portfolio is a signal of financial stress ahead and an era of hard asset outperformance against paper assets.</li>
<li>While we are long-term bulls on gold, it is highly extended and investors seeking to deploy cash into this investment theme should consider the energy sector as an alternative.</li>
<li>Our base-case scenario calls for a tactical recovery in stock prices into April. What happens next will depend on the evolution of economic data.</li>
</ul>


Gold has staged a relative breakout against the S&amp;P 500 and 60/40 portfolio is a signal of financial stress ahead and an era of hard asset outperformance against paper assets.
While we are long-term bulls on gold, it is highly extended and investors seeking to deploy cash into this investment theme should consider the energy sector as an alternative.
Our base-case scenario calls for a tactical recovery in stock prices into April. What happens next will depend on the evolution of economic data.


The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Indian market has discounted some of the issues the country faces </li>
<li>The best performing assets in Q1 2025 continue to be our favourites</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Indian market has discounted some of the issues the country faces 
The best performing assets in Q1 2025 continue to be our favourites


Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets</li>
<li>What is different this time around from previous bear markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets
What is different this time around from previous bear markets


Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

Cam Hui

Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Revisiting India, our top 2 allocations and the ongoing US bear market

Rikki Malik

Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

​Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

Cam Hui

Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Revisiting India, our top 2 allocations and the ongoing US bear market

Rikki Malik

Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...