Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.</li>
<li>New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond</li>
<li>Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)</li>
</ul>


Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today saw 65mm shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.</li>
<li>That suggests a certain lack of "risk taking" by passive managers, increasing today's trade in NY. </li>
<li>Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). </li>
</ul>


Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
That suggests a certain lack of "risk taking" by passive managers, increasing today's trade in NY. 
Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 


Newcrest/Newmont - More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> saw its shareholder meeting vote through the Scheme, then on teh 18th, the Special Div went ex-. </li>
<li>Since then, as gold has rebounded sharply, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has underperformed peers and juniors (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a>) since gold has spiked.</li>
<li>Thursday is the last day of trading and there is a LOT of NEM to trade.</li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) saw its shareholder meeting vote through the Scheme, then on teh 18th, the Special Div went ex-. 
Since then, as gold has rebounded sharply, Newmont Mining (NEM US) has underperformed peers and juniors (VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)) since gold has spiked.
Thursday is the last day of trading and there is a LOT of NEM to trade.


Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing - Flowfront & Gold Price

<ul>
<li>Back in February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newmont-proposes-taking-newcrest-back-into-the-fold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:95111" rel="noopener">Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold</a>. Newmont bumped, there was due dili, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-backs-newmont-s-us-19bn-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:102309" rel="noopener">Newcrest Backs Newmont's US$19bn Offer</a> in May.</li>
<li>More recently, we have <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-shareholder-vote-on-13th-oct" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112519" rel="noopener">Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct</a>, with a prescribed schedule. That makes things fun. </li>
<li>There will be considerable movement of shares, and that will mean opportunity. Both up and down. I see US$3bn to buy, then A$1.5bn or more to sell a bit later.</li>
</ul>


Back in February, Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold. Newmont bumped, there was due dili, then Newcrest Backs Newmont's US$19bn Offer in May.
More recently, we have Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct, with a prescribed schedule. That makes things fun. 
There will be considerable movement of shares, and that will mean opportunity. Both up and down. I see US$3bn to buy, then A$1.5bn or more to sell a bit later.


Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Newcrest/Newmont - More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

The NCM selldown was larger than I expected as global passive avoids gap risk. That means a bigger arb risk and more action at the NEM close today....

Travis Lundy

Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing - Flowfront & Gold Price

Newmont Mining has run into a "perfect storm" of increasing negative correlation and increasing negative beta to gold vs Peers, and Newcrest...

Travis Lundy

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

The Newcrest-Newmont merger sees its major shareholder vote on 13 Oct. Assuming it goes through, two weeks later start index shenanigans. The net...

Travis Lundy

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