Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025</li>
<li>Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative</li>
<li>Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key</li>
</ul>


Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025
Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative
Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key


Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The Boj, the Fed, and the ECB all tightened rates this week - with different outcomes</li>
<li>Tightening liquidity globally, but still no signs of a major top</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The Boj, the Fed, and the ECB all tightened rates this week - with different outcomes
Tightening liquidity globally, but still no signs of a major top


United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

The Federal Reserve plans to cut rates three times in 2024 and a total of 175bps by end 2025, keeping policy accommodative. BOJ remains loose....

Rikki Malik

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Overview #78 – Not Out of the Woods

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank tightening, Iran taunting the US over rate hikes and a...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)