Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Oil Services ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>As long as last Wednesday's (Aug. 12) bullish gaps remain unfilled and hold as support on semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory(DRAM), neoclouds(NCLD), and momentum(MTUM), bulls are in control</li>
<li>Specifically, we are bullish as long as price is above last Tuesday's highs on the aforementioned ETFs. On SPX, we will remain bullish as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
As long as last Wednesday's (Aug. 12) bullish gaps remain unfilled and hold as support on semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory(DRAM), neoclouds(NCLD), and momentum(MTUM), bulls are in control
Specifically, we are bullish as long as price is above last Tuesday's highs on the aforementioned ETFs. On SPX, we will remain bullish as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.


Energy Improving; Levels to Watch on A.I. And Technology $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $MTUM

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Company results support our outlook on the nuclear power renaissance</li>
<li>The latest Deepseek model outperforms all competitors but valued at a fraction of them </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Company results support our outlook on the nuclear power renaissance
The latest Deepseek model outperforms all competitors but valued at a fraction of them 


<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Global Bond Yields move lower, while hard assets and cyclicals continue to outperform</li>
<li>Sanae Takaichi adds doves to the BoJ Board, aligning monetary policy with her goals</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Global Bond Yields move lower, while hard assets and cyclicals continue to outperform
Sanae Takaichi adds doves to the BoJ Board, aligning monetary policy with her goals


Overview #51 — Rates Roll Over, Cyclicals Take Control

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.</li>
<li>US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.</li>
<li>Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.


United States

VanEck Oil Services ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks to track the performance results of the MVIS US Listed Oil Services 25 Index. The Index is comprised of common stocks and depositary receipts of U.S. companies in the oil services sector. Such companies may include small & medium-cap companies and foreign companies listed in the US.

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VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH US)

Energy Improving; Levels to Watch on A.I. And Technology $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $MTUM

Energy $XLE $OIH $IEO Improving; Levels to Watch in A.I. and Technology Areas $CHAT $SOXX $MTUM $DRAM. Still bullish $SPX, but some reason for...

Vermilion Research

Overview #57 – Plus Ça Change…

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Oil, Nuclear, Deepseek and earnings from some of our stocks

Rikki Malik

Overview #51 — Rates Roll Over, Cyclicals Take Control

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the move down in bond yields and impact on our favourite...

Rikki Malik

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Gold looks a bit fatigued and silver likely to play catch up. Greenback could present headwinds for equities. Japan reverses big gains in 2024.

Douglas Busch

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