Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As the street warms up to a potential Biden victory, arguments for improving equity breadth and cyclical rotation are starting to emerge again</li>
<li>Financial media references to a cyclical rotation saw a multi-STDEV spike in June, which coincided with a significant and notably enduring lift in the ratios of US industrials-to-staples and transports-to-staples </li>
<li>Our testing highlights the US transports-to-staples ratio as the most correlated with the cyclical rotation theme, but we see similar action in the copper/gold ratio and EM currencies</li>
<li>In the past 10 days, our text-mined data shows an incipient pro-cyclical move, but its momentum has yet to fully turn net-positive</li>
<li>Calls for a cyclical rotation softened through the September correction, COVID-19 second wave fears and more recent fiscal stimulus uncertainty; but the cyclical/defensive sector ratios endured as the structural reframing of a Biden presidency as an inflation-positive outcome went mainstream</li>
<li>While historically "cyclical rotation" and "value rotation" were strongly correlated, we have seen a decoupling in these themes due to the heavy burden of the COVID-19 crisis on financials and energy</li>
<li>Economists have pointed to the increased likelihood of a vaccine in H1 as a driver of recent bullishness and inflationary optimism, but observations from text mining and from the Superforecaster survey (Good Judgement Project) do not suggest new positives here</li>
<li>Predictably, at this stage of post-pandemic recovery the focus of cyclical rotation is on industrials and materials (particularly mining &amp; construction materials), with a Biden win implying elevated infrastructure spend</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


As the street warms up to a potential Biden victory, arguments for improving equity breadth and cyclical rotation are starting to emerge again
Financial media references to a cyclical rotation saw a multi-STDEV spike in June, which coincided with a significant and notably enduring lift in the ratios of US industrials-to-staples and transports-to-staples 
Our testing highlights the US transports-to-staples ratio as the most correlated with the cyclical rotation theme, but we see similar action in the copper/gold ratio and EM currencies
In the past 10 days, our text-mined data shows an incipient pro-cyclical move, but its momentum has yet to fully turn net-positive
Calls for a cyclical rotation softened through the September correction, COVID-19 second wave fears and more recent fiscal stimulus uncertainty; but the cyclical/defensive sector ratios endured as the structural reframing of a Biden presidency as an inflation-positive outcome went mainstream
While historically "cyclical rotation" and "value rotation" were strongly correlated, we have seen a decoupling in these themes due to the heavy burden of the COVID-19 crisis on financials and energy
Economists have pointed to the increased likelihood of a vaccine in H1 as a driver of recent bullishness and inflationary optimism, but observations from text mining and from the Superforecaster survey (Good Judgement Project) do not suggest new positives here
Predictably, at this stage of post-pandemic recovery the focus of cyclical rotation is on industrials and materials (particularly mining &amp; construction materials), with a Biden win implying elevated infrastructure spend
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Thematics: Cyclical Rotation Through The Lens of Text Mining

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> 7-8% dividend yield is relatively stable, funded from the defensive business with low capex. </li>
<li>The banks, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>, also pay high dividend yields but come from recovery yields as the share price dropped. </li>
<li>SIDO's 0.33% weight on MSCI makes it less affected compared to the big banks from the foreign outflow as of now. </li>
</ul>



Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) 7-8% dividend yield is relatively stable, funded from the defensive business with low capex. 
The banks, including Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) , Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), also pay high dividend yields but come from recovery yields as the share price dropped. 
SIDO's 0.33% weight on MSCI makes it less affected compared to the big banks from the foreign outflow as of now. 


Sido Muncul (SIDO): High Yield and Index Membership

United States

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the FTSE Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets around the world. Brazil, Russia, India, Taiwan, China, and South Africa are among the markets included. The ETF weights these holdings based on market capitalization.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

TMI Thematics: Cyclical Rotation Through The Lens of Text Mining

As the equity melt-up sees renewed "cyclical rotation" calls, we text-mine the global financial media to find early signs of recovery in the theme...

Elan Gore

Sido Muncul (SIDO): High Yield and Index Membership

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) offers stable 7-8% dividend yield from defensive business, while banks like BBRI and BMRI pay high dividends from recovery...

Henry Soediarko

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

TMI Thematics: Cyclical Rotation Through The Lens of Text Mining

As the equity melt-up sees renewed "cyclical rotation" calls, we text-mine the global financial media to find early signs of recovery in the theme...

Elan Gore

Sido Muncul (SIDO): High Yield and Index Membership

​Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) offers stable 7-8% dividend yield from defensive business, while banks like BBRI and BMRI pay high dividends from recovery...

Henry Soediarko

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) offers stable 7-8% dividend yield from defensive business, while banks like BBRI and BMRI pay high dividends from recovery...