Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners</li><li>Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levels</li><li>Fed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentiment</li><li>Central bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria</li></ul>

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver minersSome goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levelsFed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentimentCentral bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the&nbsp;local and regional ramifications.&nbsp; It does not make for cheerful reading as the terrorist threat continues to evolve and extend its tendrils, with a&nbsp;nuanced response needed. Egyptians are working hard and I hope they pull through. This also highlights the severe geopolitical risk in the region, which I believe is the highest in a decade, even as OPEC spare capacity is at 08 lows.

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the&nbsp;local and regional ramifications.&nbsp;  It does not make for cheerful reading as the terrorist threat continues to evolve and extend its tendrils, with a&nbsp;nuanced response needed. Egyptians are working hard and I hope they pull through.  This also highlights the severe geopolitical risk in the region, which I believe is the highest in a decade, even as OPEC spare capacity is at 08 lows.

As we head towards the US payrolls report, US rates have continued to drift up this week, building on the rise last week on a less dovish than expected FOMC. Provided the payrolls report is not too far from expected, the EUR may reassert its recent downtrend.&nbsp; The spreads between EUR and USD interest rates have moved to new lows since 2007.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be shaking off the bear-market, rejecting moves much below $50 and energy sector equities have performed well recently, offering support for the CAD.&nbsp; The RBA is keeping a rate cut up its sleeve for now.

As we head towards the US payrolls report, US rates have continued to drift up this week, building on the rise last week on a less dovish than expected FOMC. Provided the payrolls report is not too far from expected, the EUR may reassert its recent downtrend.&nbsp; The spreads between EUR and USD interest rates have moved to new lows since 2007.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be shaking off the bear-market, rejecting moves much below $50 and energy sector equities have performed well recently, offering support for the CAD.&nbsp; The RBA is keeping a rate cut up its sleeve for now.

AmpGFX - Oil may be stabilizing, rate pressure on EUR

United States

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the FTSE Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets around the world. Brazil, Russia, India, Taiwan, China, and South Africa are among the markets included. The ETF weights these holdings based on market capitalization.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just...

Kay Van-Petersen

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to...

Charles De Trenck

Confidence in Fed Hikes Waning

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage. This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD...

Greg Gibbs

Egypt on the brink

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the local...

Emad Mostaque

AmpGFX - Oil may be stabilizing, rate pressure on EUR

As we head towards the US payrolls report, US rates have continued to drift up this week, building on the rise last week on a less dovish than...

Greg Gibbs