Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.</li>
<li>These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.</li>
<li>Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.</li>
</ul>


The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.
These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.
Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.


A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Varun Beverages and PepsiCo signed a revised Exclusive Bottling Appointment (EBA) for India on May 21, 2026, extending the term to April 2049 and deleting the SPV-only restriction.</li>
<li>The two changes together provide VBL a longer earnings visibility runway and optionality to build businesses beyond PepsiCo's direct umbrella.</li>
<li>The real question is what VBL actually does with its new operational freedom and whether management has the execution bandwidth to pursue it.</li>
</ul>


Varun Beverages and PepsiCo signed a revised Exclusive Bottling Appointment (EBA) for India on May 21, 2026, extending the term to April 2049 and deleting the SPV-only restriction.
The two changes together provide VBL a longer earnings visibility runway and optionality to build businesses beyond PepsiCo's direct umbrella.
The real question is what VBL actually does with its new operational freedom and whether management has the execution bandwidth to pursue it.


Varun Beverages: Changes in Longest Exclusive Pepsi Agreement & What Does that Mean?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>VBL reports strongest quarterly performance in six quarters: Volumes up 16.3%, revenue up 18.1%, and PAT up 20.1% YoY in Q1 CY2026, aided by a favourable base and early-summer demand.</li>
<li>After a rain-disrupted CY2025, this quarter signals a clear operational re-acceleration. Africa acquisitions add scale; new product launches in energy and dairy broaden the India portfolio beyond CSDs.</li>
<li>Raw-Material cover is in place for at least two quarters and management's confidence sustaining double-digit growth for 5 years+ is worth taking seriously. Key monitorable: Input costs (Q3 CY2026 onwards)</li>
</ul>


VBL reports strongest quarterly performance in six quarters: Volumes up 16.3%, revenue up 18.1%, and PAT up 20.1% YoY in Q1 CY2026, aided by a favourable base and early-summer demand.
After a rain-disrupted CY2025, this quarter signals a clear operational re-acceleration. Africa acquisitions add scale; new product launches in energy and dairy broaden the India portfolio beyond CSDs.
Raw-Material cover is in place for at least two quarters and management's confidence sustaining double-digit growth for 5 years+ is worth taking seriously. Key monitorable: Input costs (Q3 CY2026 onwards)


Summer Is Back- Varun Beverages: Growth Back to Double Digits

<ul>
<li>Varun Beverages, a leading PepsiCo bottler, delivered 16.3% volume growth, completed the Twizza acquisition, signed the Crickley Dairy deal and declared Rs. 0.50 dividend.
</li>
<li>With India capacity stabilized, capex reducing to Rs. 500-600 crore, and a stronger summer outlook, operating leverage is improving, supporting sustained double-digit volume growth visibility over the medium term.</li>
<li>A volume-first strategy in India and faster-than-expected Africa scale-up, with ~Rs. 1,000 crore incremental revenues, positions VBL for stronger earnings growth and diversification beyond seasonal dependence.</li>
</ul>


Varun Beverages, a leading PepsiCo bottler, delivered 16.3% volume growth, completed the Twizza acquisition, signed the Crickley Dairy deal and declared Rs. 0.50 dividend.

With India capacity stabilized, capex reducing to Rs. 500-600 crore, and a stronger summer outlook, operating leverage is improving, supporting sustained double-digit volume growth visibility over the medium term.
A volume-first strategy in India and faster-than-expected Africa scale-up, with ~Rs. 1,000 crore incremental revenues, positions VBL for stronger earnings growth and diversification beyond seasonal dependence.


Varun Beverages: Africa Bets, Volume Surge, and a Summer Built for Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/varun-beverages-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23653:1" rel="noopener">Varun Beverages (VBL IN)</a> is the second-largest global PepsiCo franchisee, operating a massive distribution network across India and several high-growth international African territories.</li>
<li>
Subdued domestic volumes due to prolonged rainfall should revive by H2FY26, driven by an optimistic management outlook and lower-than-average forward valuation multiples.</li>
<li>Future growth will be catalyzed by strategic expansion into alcoholic beverages, increased penetration in rural India, and successful launches in the energy category.</li>
</ul>



Varun Beverages (VBL IN) is the second-largest global PepsiCo franchisee, operating a massive distribution network across India and several high-growth international African territories.

Subdued domestic volumes due to prolonged rainfall should revive by H2FY26, driven by an optimistic management outlook and lower-than-average forward valuation multiples.
Future growth will be catalyzed by strategic expansion into alcoholic beverages, increased penetration in rural India, and successful launches in the energy category.


Varun Baverage: Expecting Turnaround In H2FY26

India

Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) is an Indian multinational company and one of the largest bottlers of PepsiCo beverages in the world outside the United States. It manufactures, bottles, distributes, and sells a wide range of carbonated soft drinks, non-carbonated beverages, and packaged drinking water under trademarks owned by PepsiCo, including popular brands like Pepsi, Mountain Dew, 7UP, Mirinda, Sting, Tropicana, Gatorade, and Aquafina. The company is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India, and was founded in 1995.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Varun Beverages (VBL IN)

A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

Varun Beverages: Changes in Longest Exclusive Pepsi Agreement & What Does that Mean?

Varun Beverages extends bottling agreement with PepsiCo in India until 2049, gaining more flexibility to expand beyond PepsiCo's portfolio. Key...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Summer Is Back- Varun Beverages: Growth Back to Double Digits

VBL sees strongest quarterly performance in six quarters with double-digit growth, aided by acquisitions and new product launches, with sustained...

Nimish Maheshwari

Varun Beverages: Africa Bets, Volume Surge, and a Summer Built for Growth

Varun Beverages sees strong growth with acquisitions, reduced capex, and improved operating leverage, positioning for sustained double-digit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Varun Baverage: Expecting Turnaround In H2FY26

Varun Beverages, the second-largest PepsiCo franchisee, expects subdued domestic volumes to revive by H2FY26, with future growth driven by...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

​The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

Varun Beverages: Changes in Longest Exclusive Pepsi Agreement & What Does that Mean?

​Varun Beverages extends bottling agreement with PepsiCo in India until 2049, gaining more flexibility to expand beyond PepsiCo's portfolio. Key...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Summer Is Back- Varun Beverages: Growth Back to Double Digits

​VBL sees strongest quarterly performance in six quarters with double-digit growth, aided by acquisitions and new product launches, with sustained...

Nimish Maheshwari

Varun Beverages: Africa Bets, Volume Surge, and a Summer Built for Growth

​Varun Beverages sees strong growth with acquisitions, reduced capex, and improved operating leverage, positioning for sustained double-digit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Varun Baverage: Expecting Turnaround In H2FY26

​Varun Beverages, the second-largest PepsiCo franchisee, expects subdued domestic volumes to revive by H2FY26, with future growth driven by...

Nimish Maheshwari

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Varun Beverages extends bottling agreement with PepsiCo in India until 2049, gaining more flexibility to expand beyond PepsiCo's portfolio. Key...

VBL sees strongest quarterly performance in six quarters with double-digit growth, aided by acquisitions and new product launches, with sustained...

Varun Beverages sees strong growth with acquisitions, reduced capex, and improved operating leverage, positioning for sustained double-digit...

Varun Beverages, the second-largest PepsiCo franchisee, expects subdued domestic volumes to revive by H2FY26, with future growth driven by...