Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p>An unexpected “hawkish” comment by Fed Chair Powell following the July Fed policy meeting jolted global markets out of complacency. President Trump’s tweets about new trade tariffs on Chinese goods, posted a day later, destroyed the remnants of the risk-on mood. We think that these two developments, rather than the recently announced US sanctions targeting Russian sovereign debt, served as the primary triggers behind the recent rouble rout. The latest export dynamics are also worrying and show that demand for Russian exports (mostly commodities) is suffering from flagging global growth. The balance-of-payments 2Q data have revealed a sharp contraction in the current account surplus, owing mainly to the poor export performance. Given the bleak near-term outlook for the oil prices and a high likelihood of further outflows from risky assets, we expect USDRUB to move into the 66-68 range in the coming weeks. </p>
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An unexpected “hawkish” comment by Fed Chair Powell following the July Fed policy meeting jolted global markets out of complacency. President Trump’s tweets about new trade tariffs on Chinese goods, posted a day later, destroyed the remnants of the risk-on mood. We think that these two developments, rather than the recently announced US sanctions targeting Russian sovereign debt, served as the primary triggers behind the recent rouble rout. The latest export dynamics are also worrying and show that demand for Russian exports (mostly commodities) is suffering from flagging global growth. The balance-of-payments 2Q data have revealed a sharp contraction in the current account surplus, owing mainly to the poor export performance. Given the bleak near-term outlook for the oil prices and a high likelihood of further outflows from risky assets, we expect USDRUB to move into the 66-68 range in the coming weeks. 


Russia: US Sanctions Are Not The Main Reason for Rouble Rout

Russia

VEB.RF GK operates as a full service bank. The Bank offers investment, foreign economic, insurance, and commercial credit services. VEB.RPF serves customers worldwide.

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VEB.RF GK (VNECB RU)

Russia: US Sanctions Are Not The Main Reason for Rouble Rout

An unexpected “hawkish” comment by Fed Chair Powell following the July Fed policy meeting jolted global markets out of complacency. President...

Tatiana Orlova

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52-week Range

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