Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel &amp; Fashion retail sector, analyzing recent earnings results and key insights from company earnings calls.</li>
<li>Names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-fashion-and-retail-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19048:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvind-fashions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28960:1" rel="noopener">Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener"> and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-fashion-india-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36625:1" rel="noopener">Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">.</a> </li>
<li>We have a bearish stance on all names except <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel &amp; Fashion retail sector, analyzing recent earnings results and key insights from company earnings calls.
Names discussed include Page Industries (PAG IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN), Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN), Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN) and Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN). 
We have a bearish stance on all names except Page Industries (PAG IN).  


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Vedant Fashions (VFL) delivered good quarter with revenue/PAT rising 23%/37% YoY (10%/21% beat) driven by strong SSS growth of 17% YoY, lower base (-12% YoY in 2QFY24), and a favorable shift in festive dates.</li><li>Our estimates are broadly unchanged.</li><li>We build in FY24-27E CAGR of 15%/17%/19% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT, mainly driven by footprint expansion and single-digit SSSG.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Vedant Fashions (VFL) delivered good quarter with revenue/PAT rising 23%/37% YoY (10%/21% beat) driven by strong SSS growth of 17% YoY, lower base (-12% YoY in 2QFY24), and a favorable shift in festive dates.Our estimates are broadly unchanged.We build in FY24-27E CAGR of 15%/17%/19% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT, mainly driven by footprint expansion and single-digit SSSG.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vedant Fashions - Outperformance Driven by Strong SSSG

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.</li>
<li>Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.
Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

<ul>
<li>In this Insight, we highlight industry and company-specific developments based on the annual reports of various companies related to the apparel industry.</li>
<li>The industry has encountered challenges, primarily due to a slowdown in demand and rising inflation. Most companies are now hoping for a turnaround.</li>
<li>Companies in Focus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-fashion-and-retail-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19048:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvind-fashions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28960:1" rel="noopener">Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-fashion-india-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36625:1" rel="noopener">Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credo-brands-marketing-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40400:1" rel="noopener">Credo Brands Marketing (CREDO IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


In this Insight, we highlight industry and company-specific developments based on the annual reports of various companies related to the apparel industry.
The industry has encountered challenges, primarily due to a slowdown in demand and rising inflation. Most companies are now hoping for a turnaround.
Companies in Focus Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN), Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN), Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN) and Credo Brands Marketing (CREDO IN).  


Namaste India 🙏 | Catching up with Fashion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a>, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-heavy-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:460:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Heavy Electricals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, NSE Nifty Bank Index, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close tomorrow.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest inflows are Trent, Bharat Electronics, Canara Bank, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics and InterGlobe Aviation.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

India

Vedant Fashions Limited operates as a manufacturer and marketer of apparels. The Company provides men, women and kids apparels and accessories. Vedant Fashions also offers ethnic wedding, indo-western, and bridal collections. Vedant Fashions serves customers worldwide.

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Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)

Top Ideas in Apparel & Fashion Retail

In this Insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel & Fashion Retail Industry, We have a bearish stance on all except Page...

Pranav Bhavsar

Vedant Fashions - Outperformance Driven by Strong SSSG

Vedant Fashions (VFL) delivered good quarter with revenue/PAT rising 23%/37% YoY (10%/21% beat) driven by strong SSS growth of 17% YoY, lower base...

Motilal Oswal

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

The reference period ends today (31st October). Our BSE 100 expected ADDs/DELs remain unchanged. For BSE 200, all expected ADDs/DELs mentioned in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Namaste India 🙏 | Catching up with Fashion

Exploring the challenges and growth projections of the Indian apparel industry, with companies like Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd and Arvind...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Top Ideas in Apparel & Fashion Retail

​In this Insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel & Fashion Retail Industry, We have a bearish stance on all except Page...

Pranav Bhavsar

Vedant Fashions - Outperformance Driven by Strong SSSG

Vedant Fashions (VFL) delivered good quarter with revenue/PAT rising 23%/37% YoY (10%/21% beat) driven by strong SSS growth of 17% YoY, lower base...

Motilal Oswal

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

The reference period ends today (31st October). Our BSE 100 expected ADDs/DELs remain unchanged. For BSE 200, all expected ADDs/DELs mentioned in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Namaste India 🙏 | Catching up with Fashion

​Exploring the challenges and growth projections of the Indian apparel industry, with companies like Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd and Arvind...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

In this Insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel & Fashion Retail Industry, We have a bearish stance on all except Page...

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

Exploring the challenges and growth projections of the Indian apparel industry, with companies like Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd and Arvind...