Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.</li>
<li>With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.</li>
<li>We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.</li>
</ul>


We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.
With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.
We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.


S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Vertex Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4864:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US)</a> reported Q1 revenue of $2.10 billion, a 22% y/y increase, reflecting continued growth in the number of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients treated globally.</li>
<li>Vertex reiterated full year 2022 product revenue guidance of $8.4–8.6 billion. However, the company raised 2022 adjusted R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses by 5% at mid-point.</li>
<li>The company has a broad pipeline beyond CF and the pipeline progress calls for continued investment for R&amp;D and SG&amp;A. This may pressurize near-term profitability of the company.</li>
</ul>



Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US) reported Q1 revenue of $2.10 billion, a 22% y/y increase, reflecting continued growth in the number of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients treated globally.
Vertex reiterated full year 2022 product revenue guidance of $8.4–8.6 billion. However, the company raised 2022 adjusted R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses by 5% at mid-point.
The company has a broad pipeline beyond CF and the pipeline progress calls for continued investment for R&amp;D and SG&amp;A. This may pressurize near-term profitability of the company.


Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Trikafta Drove Q1 Results; 2022 Revenue Guidance Maintained

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.</li>
<li>If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.</li>
<li>On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal</li>
</ul>


We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.
If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.
On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal


10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4864:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US)</a> is expanding its pipeline beyond its existing forte of cystic fibrosis, which enhances its long-term visibility.</li>
<li>Gene editing treatment CTX001 for treating sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia is Vertex’s most advanced program outside of CF. With its initial label approval, CTX001 has multi-billion-dollar opportunity.</li>
<li>A war chest of $7.5 billion and stable revenue flow from cystic fibrosis drugs should enable the company to pursue for the next leg of growth.</li>
</ul>



Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US) is expanding its pipeline beyond its existing forte of cystic fibrosis, which enhances its long-term visibility.
Gene editing treatment CTX001 for treating sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia is Vertex’s most advanced program outside of CF. With its initial label approval, CTX001 has multi-billion-dollar opportunity.
A war chest of $7.5 billion and stable revenue flow from cystic fibrosis drugs should enable the company to pursue for the next leg of growth.


Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): No Longer Remains a ‘Cystic Fibrosis Only’ Play

<ul>
<li>The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.</li>
<li>We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.</li>
<li>The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.</li>
</ul>


The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.
We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.
The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.


Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

United States

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated discovers, develops, and commercializes pharmaceutical products. The Company develops drugs for the treatment of cystic fibrosis, cancer, inflammatory bowel, autoimmune disease, and neurological disorders. Vertex Pharmaceuticals serves healthcare sector worldwide.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX UW)

S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

The $SPX is trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the...

Vermilion Research

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Trikafta Drove Q1 Results; 2022 Revenue Guidance Maintained

Vertex reported double-digit revenue and EPS growth in Q1 2022. The company reiterated 2022 product revenue growth guidance of 12% and raised R&D...

Tina Banerjee

10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

10-year Treas yield $TNX is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance at 2.8-2.82%. If interest rates are to move lower, now would be the time,...

Vermilion Research

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): No Longer Remains a ‘Cystic Fibrosis Only’ Play

Vertex's pipeline beyond cystic fibrosis is nicely advancing through late stages. Portfolio diversification amid strong cash balance, positions...

Tina Banerjee

Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

The short-term bullish reversal that we referenced last week is officially underway now that the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are...

Vermilion Research

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