European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Long expected consolidation is arriving to UK car retailers. Alpha Auto agreed to acquire  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lookers-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22031:1" rel="noopener">Lookers PLC (LOOK LN)</a> via scheme at 120p/share, c.£465.4 million, 35.3% premium, 8.4x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>The sector appears materially undervalued, with Lookers before announcement on 6.2x Fwd P/E, 4% FY23e yield (4x cover). My fair value estimate is 143p/share (multiples and DCF), 19% above offer price. </li>
<li>Spread 1.17%/4.32% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement around 1 October). Top shareholders have only signed letters of intent (40% aggregate). I'd be long in case of sweetening. VTU LN could be next.</li>
</ul>


Long expected consolidation is arriving to UK car retailers. Alpha Auto agreed to acquire  Lookers PLC (LOOK LN) via scheme at 120p/share, c.£465.4 million, 35.3% premium, 8.4x Fwd P/E.
The sector appears materially undervalued, with Lookers before announcement on 6.2x Fwd P/E, 4% FY23e yield (4x cover). My fair value estimate is 143p/share (multiples and DCF), 19% above offer price. 
Spread 1.17%/4.32% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement around 1 October). Top shareholders have only signed letters of intent (40% aggregate). I'd be long in case of sweetening. VTU LN could be next.


Alpha Auto Group/Lookers: Consolidation at a Cheap Offer Price

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

In today’s report we outline  our belief that the combination of extreme oversold conditions and several key sectors/industries holding above major long-term support lead us to believe an important bottom has been established. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Staples, Financials, and Health Care: Large- &amp; Small-Cap Soft Drinks &amp; Bottlers, Electronic Exchanges/Markets, and Large- and Mid-Cap Biotech.

In today’s report we outline  our belief that the combination of extreme oversold conditions and several key sectors/industries holding above major long-term support lead us to believe an important bottom has been established. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Staples, Financials, and Health Care: Large- &amp; Small-Cap Soft Drinks &amp; Bottlers, Electronic Exchanges/Markets, and Large- and Mid-Cap Biotech.

A Bottom Has Been Established; Possible Retest?

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vertu&#8217;s strong defensive qualities have been clearly demonstrated during H118. A falling new car market and used car margin pressures have been absorbed, yet underlying PBT has again moved ahead. While we have cut our immediate profit estimates to reflect the cautious trading climate, we believe that the continued investment in upgrading facilities and the future acquisition potential is not recognised in the current share price.

Vertu&#8217;s strong defensive qualities have been clearly demonstrated during H118. A falling new car market and used car margin pressures have been absorbed, yet underlying PBT has again moved ahead. While we have cut our immediate profit estimates to reflect the cautious trading climate, we believe that the continued investment in upgrading facilities and the future acquisition potential is not recognised in the current share price.

Vertu Motors has produced another solid set of figures, supported by a series of key investments to strengthen the medium-term outlook. Trading in the new car market has become more challenging, but the key used car and aftermarket operations continue to progress consistently.

Vertu Motors has produced another solid set of figures, supported by a series of key investments to strengthen the medium-term outlook. Trading in the new car market has become more challenging, but the key used car and aftermarket operations continue to progress consistently.

United Kingdom

Vertu Motor plc operates as an automotive retailer in the United Kingdom. It sells new cars, motorcycles, commercial vehicles, and used vehicles, as well as provides related aftersales services. It operates a chain of franchised motor dealerships offering sales, service, parts, and bodyshop facilities for new and used cars, and commercial vehicles under the Bristol Street Motors and Macklin Motors brand names. Its franchise dealerships include Volvo, Volkswagen, Land Rover, Jaguar, and Honda. It also operates as a pension scheme trustee; and provides vehicle financing and related insurance products, as well as is involved in the property and online parts retailing businesses. As of May 11, 2016, the company operated a network of 127 sales outlets. Vertu Motor plc was founded in 2006 and is based in Gateshead, the United Kingdom.

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Vertu Motors (VTU LN)

Alpha Auto Group/Lookers: Consolidation at a Cheap Offer Price

The car retail business in the UK is extremely fragmented, with minimal entry barriers, resulting in strong rivalry and poor profitability. Lookers...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

A Bottom Has Been Established; Possible Retest?

In today’s report we outline our belief that the combination of extreme oversold conditions and several key sectors/industries holding above major...

Vermilion Research

Defensive qualities shine through

Vertu’s strong defensive qualities have been clearly demonstrated during H118. A falling new car market and used car margin pressures have been...

Edison Investment Research

Responding to the challenge

Vertu Motors has produced another solid set of figures, supported by a series of key investments to strengthen the medium-term outlook. Trading in...

Edison Investment Research

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