Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (<em>see chart below</em>). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. </p><p>In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.</p>

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>How can Apple guide stronger 4Q17 on back of iPhone X production delay?</h2><p>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> reports 4% stronger 3Q17 sales than Bloomberg consensus estimates and earlier guidance to US$52.6bn (up 16% q/q and 12% y/y) with US$0.2 or 11% higher in 3Q EPS, Apple guides 4Q sales of US$84-87bn, up 60-65% q/q and 7-11% y/y, implying no clear sign of iPhone X production delay (cut to 20mn for 2017 from 40mn) to and no sign of iPhone 8/8 plus 50% demand related production cut than some news and…</p>

How can Apple guide stronger 4Q17 on back of iPhone X production delay?After Apple Inc (AAPL US) reports 4% stronger 3Q17 sales than Bloomberg consensus estimates and earlier guidance to US$52.6bn (up 16% q/q and 12% y/y) with US$0.2 or 11% higher in 3Q EPS, Apple guides 4Q sales of US$84-87bn, up 60-65% q/q and 7-11% y/y, implying no clear sign of iPhone X production delay (cut to 20mn for 2017 from 40mn) to and no sign of iPhone 8/8 plus 50% demand related production cut than some news and…

How Can Apple Guide Stronger 4Q17 on Back of IPhone X Production Delay?

Advanced Semiconductor Engr / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Fingerprint SiP is replaced by face ID</h2><p>By factoring in the following guidance from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/721" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:721:1">Advanced Semiconductor Engr (2311 TT)</a> , we estimate ASE trying to guide below seasonal 4Q sales growth of 0% q/q at a gross margin of 18%, which is 8% below Bloomberg consensus' sales estimates. We thus expect analysts to cut their 3Q17 EPS estimates to NT$0.60-0.70 level from NT$0.79 now. This is in line with our earlier concerns that ASE's fingerprint system in packaging (SiP) business in weaker demand iPhone 8…</p>

Fingerprint SiP is replaced by face IDBy factoring in the following guidance from Advanced Semiconductor Engr (2311 TT) , we estimate ASE trying to guide below seasonal 4Q sales growth of 0% q/q at a gross margin of 18%, which is 8% below Bloomberg consensus' sales estimates. We thus expect analysts to cut their 3Q17 EPS estimates to NT$0.60-0.70 level from NT$0.79 now. This is in line with our earlier concerns that ASE's fingerprint system in packaging (SiP) business in weaker demand iPhone 8…

ASE Guides Below Seasonal 4Q17; Fingerprint SiP Is Replaced by Face ID

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Event-Driven

<p>A source tells CTFN that Viavi Solutions Inc. explored selling itself before the split from Lumentum Holdings Inc. &nbsp;In the meantime, while&nbsp;Viavi has hired bankers and settled with Sandell, Viavi's business remains in transition, raising questions about the timing of any strategic outcomes.</p>

A source tells CTFN that Viavi Solutions Inc. explored selling itself before the split from Lumentum Holdings Inc. &nbsp;In the meantime, while&nbsp;Viavi has hired bankers and settled with Sandell, Viavi's business remains in transition, raising questions about the timing of any strategic outcomes.

Viavi Solutions No Longer in Active Sale Mode

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite a micro-cap status, Calnex is the key player behind the evolution of high-speed network infrastructure on a truly global basis;</li>
<li>The company has a market-dominant position at several critical points across the global telecoms ecosystem;</li>
<li>The recent plunge in share price demonstrates Mr. Market's short-termism and presents a good opportunity for incoming shareholders, in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


Despite a micro-cap status, Calnex is the key player behind the evolution of high-speed network infrastructure on a truly global basis;
The company has a market-dominant position at several critical points across the global telecoms ecosystem;
The recent plunge in share price demonstrates Mr. Market's short-termism and presents a good opportunity for incoming shareholders, in our opinion.


Calnex: De-Facto Standards for High-Speed Network Infrastructure Worldwide

United States

Viavi Solutions Inc. provides network and service enabling solutions and optical products. The Company offers installation, commissioning, scripting, custom analytics, integration, business intelligence consulting, operational assistance, field and lab testing, technical training, maintenance, and support services. Viavi Solutions serves customers worldwide.

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Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our...

Vermilion Research

How Can Apple Guide Stronger 4Q17 on Back of IPhone X Production Delay?

How can Apple guide stronger 4Q17 on back of iPhone X production delay?After Apple Inc (AAPL US) reports 4% stronger 3Q17 sales than Bloomberg...

Andrew Lu

ASE Guides Below Seasonal 4Q17; Fingerprint SiP Is Replaced by Face ID

Fingerprint SiP is replaced by face IDBy factoring in the following guidance from Advanced Semiconductor Engr (2311 TT) , we estimate ASE trying to...

Andrew Lu

Viavi Solutions No Longer in Active Sale Mode

A source tells CTFN that Viavi Solutions Inc. explored selling itself before the split from Lumentum Holdings Inc. In the meantime, while Viavi...

CTFN

Calnex: De-Facto Standards for High-Speed Network Infrastructure Worldwide

Mr. Market's short-termism presents a rare opportunity for investors to acquire shares in this high-quality business at a reasonable price.

Steven Chen

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