Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vietnam Technological & Commer / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Vietnamese banks should be partially shielded from the market fallout due to Silicon Valley Bank given the bank system’s lack of integration with the global financial system</li>
<li>We are selective in our stock picks, given the investment climate and the challenges to capital adequacy for a number of banks; we also assess the banks’ deposit ratios</li>
<li>We recommend shareholders to switch out of Vietcombank into Techcombank given its very modest valuations, attractive PEG and its strong capital ratio; VP Bank is one to watch</li>
</ul>


The Vietnamese banks should be partially shielded from the market fallout due to Silicon Valley Bank given the bank system’s lack of integration with the global financial system
We are selective in our stock picks, given the investment climate and the challenges to capital adequacy for a number of banks; we also assess the banks’ deposit ratios
We recommend shareholders to switch out of Vietcombank into Techcombank given its very modest valuations, attractive PEG and its strong capital ratio; VP Bank is one to watch


Vietnamese Banks 4Q 2022 Results Screener; Our Pick Is Techcombank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit momentum should slow progressively in 3Q22: Due to high funding demand from both corporate and retail customers, credit growth in 1H22 reached a new high of 9.35% YTD.</li>
<li>However, because of high uncertainty in the global economy, as well as the fear of systematic risk over local real-estate credit exposure, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has intentionally curbed credit growth using a credit growth cap.</li>
<li>Exceptional credit growth will continue in 2022: Regardless of the SBV’s intentions regarding credit growth limits, total credit growth in 2022 is still expected to exceed 14%, based on the extraordinary performance in 1H22.</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>


Credit momentum should slow progressively in 3Q22: Due to high funding demand from both corporate and retail customers, credit growth in 1H22 reached a new high of 9.35% YTD.
However, because of high uncertainty in the global economy, as well as the fear of systematic risk over local real-estate credit exposure, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has intentionally curbed credit growth using a credit growth cap.
Exceptional credit growth will continue in 2022: Regardless of the SBV’s intentions regarding credit growth limits, total credit growth in 2022 is still expected to exceed 14%, based on the extraordinary performance in 1H22.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam Prosperity  Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

[Vietnam] Banking March 07, 2022 (Upgrade) Upside: +20.2%<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

[Vietnam] Banking March 07, 2022 (Upgrade) Upside: +20.2%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Another rate cut could come in handy: In order to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has conducted three central rate cuts totalling more than 150bps for all tenors.

Another rate cut could come in handy: In order to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has conducted three central rate cuts totalling more than 150bps for all tenors.

Vietnam Banking Industry 2021 Outlook: Challenges Ahead

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: A liquidity driven melt-up combined with month-end rebalancing to drive bank credit spread performance over the last week. Remove the month-end rebalancing and short duration positioning may remain the best strategy over the next few weeks, absent a material inflection point in the upcoming non-farm payroll numbers. The short end of the rates market continued to push investors up the curve to generate returns. Awash with still rising liquidity, this melt-up was the key driver of credit spread outperformance.Risk asset volatility and talking about, talking about, talking about tapering had little lasting impact on US interest rates over the last few weeks. In fact, rate curve flattening, and falling forward breakeven rates, suggest that the interest rate market may buy the Fed’s assessment of inflation as being transitory.While the transitory mantra is believed, whispers of supply driven growth constraints are being mentioned. This would be interest rate and credit spread positive as it would extend the duration of the recovery and thereby delay late-stage economic cycle repositioning. Although not consensus, this thought is disconcerting, as it suggests the rising rates consensus is very wrong.Therefore, the risk is clearly that the rates market is underpricing the potential for an extended period of higher than anticipated inflation. However, holding cash is expensive. Moving too early to position for higher or longer than anticipated inflation may be career ending. Extending duration to take advantage of declining rates is considered insane. Carry trades remain unloved. Ergo, the silent self-doubtful suffering of the rate and credit markets. Security selection based on fundamental analysis, in so much as one avoids unexpected spread widening, may be the differentiator for outsized total returns over the next few weeks.  We elaborate on these themes within.Market Outlook: The question is whether the over-heating narrative will make a comeback and bring rate and tapering expectations closer. Financial stability risks appear binary from here. Either the Fed is over-accommodative, and it sits on its hands too long while asset bubbles over-inflate so that it gets nasty when it moves, or the Fed gets impatient, and it lowers accommodation unexpectedly which creates a risk off reaction. In both cases, curves flatten in a risk-off environment. We suspect the former is more likely, and for now, the Fed remains the bartender rather than the bouncer.

Executive Summary: A liquidity driven melt-up combined with month-end rebalancing to drive bank credit spread performance over the last week. Remove the month-end rebalancing and short duration positioning may remain the best strategy over the next few weeks, absent a material inflection point in the upcoming non-farm payroll numbers. The short end of the rates market continued to push investors up the curve to generate returns. Awash with still rising liquidity, this melt-up was the key driver of credit spread outperformance.Risk asset volatility and talking about, talking about, talking about tapering had little lasting impact on US interest rates over the last few weeks. In fact, rate curve flattening, and falling forward breakeven rates, suggest that the interest rate market may buy the Fed’s assessment of inflation as being transitory.While the transitory mantra is believed, whispers of supply driven growth constraints are being mentioned. This would be interest rate and credit spread positive as it would extend the duration of the recovery and thereby delay late-stage economic cycle repositioning. Although not consensus, this thought is disconcerting, as it suggests the rising rates consensus is very wrong.Therefore, the risk is clearly that the rates market is underpricing the potential for an extended period of higher than anticipated inflation. However, holding cash is expensive. Moving too early to position for higher or longer than anticipated inflation may be career ending. Extending duration to take advantage of declining rates is considered insane. Carry trades remain unloved. Ergo, the silent self-doubtful suffering of the rate and credit markets. Security selection based on fundamental analysis, in so much as one avoids unexpected spread widening, may be the differentiator for outsized total returns over the next few weeks.  We elaborate on these themes within.Market Outlook: The question is whether the over-heating narrative will make a comeback and bring rate and tapering expectations closer. Financial stability risks appear binary from here. Either the Fed is over-accommodative, and it sits on its hands too long while asset bubbles over-inflate so that it gets nasty when it moves, or the Fed gets impatient, and it lowers accommodation unexpectedly which creates a risk off reaction. In both cases, curves flatten in a risk-off environment. We suspect the former is more likely, and for now, the Fed remains the bartender rather than the bouncer.

Bank Credit Weekly: Month-End Rebalancing Takes Risk-Off Before Take-Off

Vietnam

Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank) provides commercial banking services. The Bank offers domestic remittance services, savings account, personal loans, e-banking, trade financing, deposits, tax payment, foreign exchange, cash management, and other banking services. VPBank serves customers in Vietnam.

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Vietnam Prosperity Bank (VPB VN)

Vietnamese Banks 4Q 2022 Results Screener; Our Pick Is Techcombank

We see selective value in Vietnamese banks and recommend holders to switch out of Vietcombank into Techcombank due to its modest valuations, low...

Victor Galliano

Banking Sector - 1H22 Update & Outlook

Credit momentum should slow progressively in 3Q22: Due to high funding demand from both corporate and retail customers, credit growth in 1H22...

Mirae Asset Securities

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB VN/BUY)

[Vietnam] Banking March 07, 2022 (Upgrade) Upside: +20.2%

Mirae Asset Securities

Vietnam Banking Industry 2021 Outlook: Challenges Ahead

Another rate cut could come in handy: In order to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has conducted three central...

Mirae Asset Securities

Bank Credit Weekly: Month-End Rebalancing Takes Risk-Off Before Take-Off

Short duration positioning may remain the best strategy over the next few weeks, absent a material inflection point in the upcoming non-farm...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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