Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* DATC Move a Tiny Positive; and * Net New NPL Growrh is Disturbing to Say the Least;  and * USD 27 bn (9.5% of total loans) in NPLs is due to double by 2020. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Vietnam has two state-owned and managed debt acquisition companies, the Debt and Asset Trading Corporation (DATC) and the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC). While VAMC is responsible for handling bad debts of commercial banks and financial institutions, the DATC has focused on settlements of bad debt owned by…

* DATC Move a Tiny Positive; and * Net New NPL Growrh is Disturbing to Say the Least;  and * USD 27 bn (9.5% of total loans) in NPLs is due to double by 2020. Investment SummaryVietnam has two state-owned and managed debt acquisition companies, the Debt and Asset Trading Corporation (DATC) and the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC). While VAMC is responsible for handling bad debts of commercial banks and financial institutions, the DATC has focused on settlements of bad debt owned by…

Vietnam Banks - DATC Move A Mere Drop In the Bucket

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain Techcombank as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, given its attractive valuations, solid pre and post provision returns and its fortress balance sheet</li>
<li>We add MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations, premium ROE and sound balance sheet metrics; we are neutral on Vietcombank</li>
<li>VP Bank remains one to watch; its NPL ratio has worsened further to March 2023 and it is the negative outlier of the peer group on credit quality</li>
</ul>


We maintain Techcombank as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, given its attractive valuations, solid pre and post provision returns and its fortress balance sheet
We add MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations, premium ROE and sound balance sheet metrics; we are neutral on Vietcombank
VP Bank remains one to watch; its NPL ratio has worsened further to March 2023 and it is the negative outlier of the peer group on credit quality


Vietnamese Banks Screener; Adding MBBank to Our Core Pick Techcombank

<ul>
<li>The Vietnamese banks should be partially shielded from the market fallout due to Silicon Valley Bank given the bank system’s lack of integration with the global financial system</li>
<li>We are selective in our stock picks, given the investment climate and the challenges to capital adequacy for a number of banks; we also assess the banks’ deposit ratios</li>
<li>We recommend shareholders to switch out of Vietcombank into Techcombank given its very modest valuations, attractive PEG and its strong capital ratio; VP Bank is one to watch</li>
</ul>


The Vietnamese banks should be partially shielded from the market fallout due to Silicon Valley Bank given the bank system’s lack of integration with the global financial system
We are selective in our stock picks, given the investment climate and the challenges to capital adequacy for a number of banks; we also assess the banks’ deposit ratios
We recommend shareholders to switch out of Vietcombank into Techcombank given its very modest valuations, attractive PEG and its strong capital ratio; VP Bank is one to watch


Vietnamese Banks 4Q 2022 Results Screener; Our Pick Is Techcombank

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Vietnam Maritime Commercial Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

Vietnam Maritime Commercial Bank (MSB VN)

There are few banks anywhere reporting strong margins or better net interest income, with Vietnam as the most stand out exception. One bank that is relatively unknown, is seeing some of the best profit expansion, and it does not appear to have run its course.

There are few banks anywhere reporting strong margins or better net interest income, with Vietnam as the most stand out exception. One bank that is relatively unknown, is seeing some of the best profit expansion, and it does not appear to have run its course.

Vietnam

Techcombank, officially known as Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank, is one of Vietnam's largest joint-stock commercial banks. It offers a comprehensive range of financial products and services, including individual and corporate loans, debit and credit cards, savings and checking accounts, electronic banking, foreign exchange, and investment products. Techcombank was founded in September 1993 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

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Techcombank (TCB VN)

Vietnam Banks - DATC Move A Mere Drop In the Bucket

* DATC Move a Tiny Positive; and * Net New NPL Growrh is Disturbing to Say the Least; and * USD 27 bn (9.5% of total loans) in NPLs is due to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam Banking Sector - Stop, It Hurts

* Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnamese Banks Screener; Adding MBBank to Our Core Pick Techcombank

We maintain value play TCB as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, adding MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations and premium ROE;...

Victor Galliano

Vietnamese Banks 4Q 2022 Results Screener; Our Pick Is Techcombank

We see selective value in Vietnamese banks and recommend holders to switch out of Vietcombank into Techcombank due to its modest valuations, low...

Victor Galliano

Vietnam – Transformational Profit

Ongoing transformation at this bank, away from term deposits, toward consumer loans, with better ALM and improved credit metrics, can see an...

Daniel Tabbush

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