Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Switzerland

Vifor Pharma AG researches, develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company offers pharmaceutical drugs for iron deficiency, nephrology, and cardio-renal therapies. Vifor Pharma serves customers worldwide.

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Vifor Pharma AG (GALE IX)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the...

Vermilion Research

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