Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After de-SPACing last August, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (VFS US)</a>, the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, went orbital, as discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/MYHnq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense</a>
</li>
<li>VinFast cratered shortly thereafter. But still trades at a hefty ~25x P/S, well above industry peers.</li>
<li>Last Friday VinFast announced it was replacing both its CEO and CFO. Not a great look five months after IPOing. Even less attractive is the incoming CEO is VinGroup's founder.</li>
</ul>


After de-SPACing last August, shares in VinFast (VFS US), the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), went orbital, as discussed in Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

VinFast cratered shortly thereafter. But still trades at a hefty ~25x P/S, well above industry peers.
Last Friday VinFast announced it was replacing both its CEO and CFO. Not a great look five months after IPOing. Even less attractive is the incoming CEO is VinGroup's founder.


VinFast's Global Expansion As Shares Stall

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 15 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows will be in Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN). </li>
</ul>


CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 15 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
The largest passive inflows will be in Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN). 


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Vinfast’s shares have fallen more than 80% since its IPO in August. Shares are currently trading at $4.93 per share compared to IPO open price of $22 per share.</li>
<li>On 20th October, Vinfast announced that the company has entered into a standby equity subscription agreement of up to $1.0bn with Yorkville Advisors which has a term of 36 months.</li>
<li>A majority of Vinfast’s EV sales in 9M2023 were to related parties or affiliates of its parent, raising serious concerns over the company’s ability to establish a market presence.  </li>
</ul>


Vinfast’s shares have fallen more than 80% since its IPO in August. Shares are currently trading at $4.93 per share compared to IPO open price of $22 per share.
On 20th October, Vinfast announced that the company has entered into a standby equity subscription agreement of up to $1.0bn with Yorkville Advisors which has a term of 36 months.
A majority of Vinfast’s EV sales in 9M2023 were to related parties or affiliates of its parent, raising serious concerns over the company’s ability to establish a market presence.  


Vinfast: New Funding to Support Growth Plans Despite Struggling to Sell EVs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> reported 2Q2023 results yesterday. Revenues saw significant increase driven by strong YoY growth in EV sales volume which reached 9,535 units during the quarter.</li>
<li>More than 50% of EV volume during 1H2023 were to a related company while US volume was less than 200 units raising serious concerns over demand for Vinfast’s EVs.</li>
<li>It seems unlikely for Vinfast to meet its 50K EV target for 2023 and our revised forecast suggests there is further downside despite shares dropping more than 50% vs IPO.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) reported 2Q2023 results yesterday. Revenues saw significant increase driven by strong YoY growth in EV sales volume which reached 9,535 units during the quarter.
More than 50% of EV volume during 1H2023 were to a related company while US volume was less than 200 units raising serious concerns over demand for Vinfast’s EVs.
It seems unlikely for Vinfast to meet its 50K EV target for 2023 and our revised forecast suggests there is further downside despite shares dropping more than 50% vs IPO.


Vinfast: Ambitious EV Plan Seems Unrealistic; Share Price Down More than 50%

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a>, Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO.</li>
<li>VNG is Vietnam’s leading homegrown digital ecosystem, as per the company, with diverse product offerings across games, communications and media, fintech and other opportunities.</li>
<li>We looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO.
VNG is Vietnam’s leading homegrown digital ecosystem, as per the company, with diverse product offerings across games, communications and media, fintech and other opportunities.
We looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Vietnam

Vingroup Joint Stock Company operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops apartments, malls, hotels and resorts, health care, educational, convention center, amusement parks, and entertainment properties. Vingroup serves customers worldwide.

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Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)

VinFast's Global Expansion As Shares Stall

IF Vingroup were to offload some of its stake in VinFast to increase the float, that could be a catalyst. I'd still be disinclined to invest in...

David Blennerhassett

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

CEO Group (CEO VN) is an add. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Vinfast: New Funding to Support Growth Plans Despite Struggling to Sell EVs

Vinfast has secured a $1bn standby equity subscription agreement with YA. Most of the company's EV sales were to related parties raising concerns...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

VNG Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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VinFast's Global Expansion As Shares Stall

IF Vingroup were to offload some of its stake in VinFast to increase the float, that could be a catalyst. I'd still be disinclined to invest in...

David Blennerhassett

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

CEO Group (CEO VN) is an add. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Vinfast: New Funding to Support Growth Plans Despite Struggling to Sell EVs

Vinfast has secured a $1bn standby equity subscription agreement with YA. Most of the company's EV sales were to related parties raising concerns...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Vinfast: Ambitious EV Plan Seems Unrealistic; Share Price Down More than 50%

Vinfast's 2Q EV numbers suggest it may not meet its 50k target for 2023. The company is struggling to sell its EV models. However, Vinfast...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

VNG Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh