Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;</li>
<li>But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn't run counter to the communique;</li>
<li>We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.</li>
</ul>


We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;
But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn't run counter to the communique;
We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.


The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）
BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>There have been various rumors regarding China's consumption in general and e-commerce trend in particular. Two of the recent ones are <strong>weak 618 sales</strong> and <strong>keep-it-refunds</strong>;</li>
<li>While we are in general pessimistic on Chinese consumption in the medium term, government subsidies and consumption vouchers are helping to keep consumption, especially e-commerce, going in healthy pace;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICKS are Alibaba and PDD, both trading at attractive valuations of 7.4x and 9.5x CY24 P/E. Solid June consumption, positive 3Q outlook, and EPS expansion are upcoming catalysts.</li>
</ul>


There have been various rumors regarding China's consumption in general and e-commerce trend in particular. Two of the recent ones are weak 618 sales and keep-it-refunds;
While we are in general pessimistic on Chinese consumption in the medium term, government subsidies and consumption vouchers are helping to keep consumption, especially e-commerce, going in healthy pace;
Our TOP PICKS are Alibaba and PDD, both trading at attractive valuations of 7.4x and 9.5x CY24 P/E. Solid June consumption, positive 3Q outlook, and EPS expansion are upcoming catalysts.


China's E-Commerce Is Not as Bad as the Stock Prices Suggest

<ul>
<li>PDD US/BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/VIPS US: NBS publishes data social retail consumption data for May 2024 (+/+/+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Need for Speed Mobile&gt; to officially launch on July 11, with pre-registration surpassed 26 mn (+)</li>
<li>CPNG/BABA/TEMU/139480.KR:Coupang told to stop favoring its own products in its algorithm (-/+/+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/VIPS US: NBS publishes data social retail consumption data for May 2024 (+/+/+/+/-)
700 HK: &lt;Need for Speed Mobile&gt; to officially launch on July 11, with pre-registration surpassed 26 mn (+)
CPNG/BABA/TEMU/139480.KR:Coupang told to stop favoring its own products in its algorithm (-/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

<ul>
<li>700 HK:&lt;DnF Mobile&gt; officially launched today, with good first-day performance.（+）</li>
<li>JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK: iPhone prices cut by 20%+ for 6.18 shopping festival (+/-/-)</li>
<li>JD US/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US: JD begins cracking down on “big enterprise disease” through layoffs and stricter corporate culture (+/+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


700 HK:&lt;DnF Mobile&gt; officially launched today, with good first-day performance.（+）
JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK: iPhone prices cut by 20%+ for 6.18 shopping festival (+/-/-)
JD US/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US: JD begins cracking down on “big enterprise disease” through layoffs and stricter corporate culture (+/+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's E-Commerce Is Not as Bad as the Stock Prices Suggest

Rumors of weak 618 sales and high keep-it-refunds ratios were unfounded. While long term consumption in China does have challenges, near term...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

NBS releases social retail consumption data for May 2024, Need for Speed Mobile to launch on July 11 with 26 mn pre-registrations, Coupang told to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

​The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

​NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's E-Commerce Is Not as Bad as the Stock Prices Suggest

​Rumors of weak 618 sales and high keep-it-refunds ratios were unfounded. While long term consumption in China does have challenges, near term...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

​NBS releases social retail consumption data for May 2024, Need for Speed Mobile to launch on July 11 with 26 mn pre-registrations, Coupang told to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

​New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Rumors of weak 618 sales and high keep-it-refunds ratios were unfounded. While long term consumption in China does have challenges, near term...

NBS releases social retail consumption data for May 2024, Need for Speed Mobile to launch on July 11 with 26 mn pre-registrations, Coupang told to...

New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...