Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vipshop reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit in-line, 6.3% and 7.0% vs. our estimate, and 4.5%, 20.5%, and 23.9%, vs. consensus, respectively;</li>
<li>We expect the two themes of “live for the moment” consumption and consumption downgrade to persist in 2024. The former drives apparel spending, while the latter drives consumers to Vipshop</li>
<li>We maintain BUY and raise the TP to US$ 20.4, implying 7.7x CY24 non-GAAP P/E, and 4.9x CY24 EV/Earnings.</li>
</ul>


Vipshop reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit in-line, 6.3% and 7.0% vs. our estimate, and 4.5%, 20.5%, and 23.9%, vs. consensus, respectively;
We expect the two themes of “live for the moment” consumption and consumption downgrade to persist in 2024. The former drives apparel spending, while the latter drives consumers to Vipshop
We maintain BUY and raise the TP to US$ 20.4, implying 7.7x CY24 non-GAAP P/E, and 4.9x CY24 EV/Earnings.


[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba closed four more supermarkets at the end of February.</li>
<li>Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao.</li>
<li>Li Auto’s deliveries increased by 62% YoY in the first two months of 2024.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba closed four more supermarkets at the end of February.
Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao.
Li Auto’s deliveries increased by 62% YoY in the first two months of 2024.


China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite ongoing Chinese macro concerns, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a>  remains firmly amid an earnings upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>With Vipshop touching on being oversold, near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.</li>
<li>Vipshop currently trades on a 6.3x NTM PE ratio, roughly one standard deviation below its rolling 5-year historic average trading range.</li>
</ul>


Despite ongoing Chinese macro concerns, Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)  remains firmly amid an earnings upgrade cycle.
With Vipshop touching on being oversold, near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.
Vipshop currently trades on a 6.3x NTM PE ratio, roughly one standard deviation below its rolling 5-year historic average trading range.


Vipshop: Positive Technical Analysis Signals

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES: NetEase Announces &lt;Eggy Party&gt;’s Spin-off Game &lt;Project Three&gt; (+)</li>
<li>1219 HK/ PDD/ SHEIN/ BABA: Temu negotiating with J&amp;T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)</li>
<li>PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/  SE/ MELI: Temu launches in South Africa (+/-)</li>
</ul>


NTES: NetEase Announces &lt;Eggy Party&gt;’s Spin-off Game &lt;Project Three&gt; (+)
1219 HK/ PDD/ SHEIN/ BABA: Temu negotiating with J&amp;T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/  SE/ MELI: Temu launches in South Africa (+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI

<ul>
<li>JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）</li>
<li>3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)</li>
</ul>


JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)
700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）
3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?

Vipshop's C4Q23 results meet expectations, with "live for the moment" and consumption downgrade trends driving growth in 2024. Analysts maintain a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

Alibaba closed four supermarkets at the end of February. Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao. Li Auto’s deliveries...

Ming Lu

Vipshop: Positive Technical Analysis Signals

In this insight, we perform a technical analysis of Vipshop by looking at earnings forecast revision trends, momentum indicators, and current...

Wium Malan, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI

NetEase announces spin-off game; Temu negotiates with J&T for overseas last-mile services; Temu launches in South Africa.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?

​Vipshop's C4Q23 results meet expectations, with "live for the moment" and consumption downgrade trends driving growth in 2024. Analysts maintain a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

Alibaba closed four supermarkets at the end of February. Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao. Li Auto’s deliveries...

Ming Lu

Vipshop: Positive Technical Analysis Signals

In this insight, we perform a technical analysis of Vipshop by looking at earnings forecast revision trends, momentum indicators, and current...

Wium Malan, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI

​NetEase announces spin-off game; Temu negotiates with J&T for overseas last-mile services; Temu launches in South Africa.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

​Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Vipshop's C4Q23 results meet expectations, with "live for the moment" and consumption downgrade trends driving growth in 2024. Analysts maintain a...

NetEase announces spin-off game; Temu negotiates with J&T for overseas last-mile services; Temu launches in South Africa.

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...