Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.</li>
<li>Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.</li>
<li>3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.
Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.
3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.


Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vista Energy SAB de CV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vista Energy reported a transformational second quarter in 2025.</li>
<li>The company's acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica has significantly expanded its production capacity, making it the largest independent oil producer and exporter in Argentina.</li>
<li>In Q2 2025, Vista reported a substantial increase in total production, which reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, reflecting an 81% year-over-year growth.</li>
</ul>


Vista Energy reported a transformational second quarter in 2025.
The company's acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica has significantly expanded its production capacity, making it the largest independent oil producer and exporter in Argentina.
In Q2 2025, Vista reported a substantial increase in total production, which reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, reflecting an 81% year-over-year growth.


Vista Energy Reported a Transformational Second Quarter in 2025.

<ul>
<li>Despite a temporary increase in operating costs, Vista Energy’s solid credit metrics, expanding production, and new pipeline capacity reinforce growth potential</li>
<li>We maintain our Outperform recommendation on Vista Energy. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.</li>
<li>From a credit perspective. The results reflected a higher debt balance, primarily driven by the $600 million issuance in December.</li>
</ul>


Despite a temporary increase in operating costs, Vista Energy’s solid credit metrics, expanding production, and new pipeline capacity reinforce growth potential
We maintain our Outperform recommendation on Vista Energy. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.
From a credit perspective. The results reflected a higher debt balance, primarily driven by the $600 million issuance in December.


Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds

<ul>
<li>We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.</li>
<li>P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.</li>
<li>Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. </li>
</ul>


We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.
P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.
Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. 


Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index widened by 4 bps to 317 bps in the week ended Wednesday, January 15, 2025. </li>
<li>YPF Priced $1.1bn Bond Due 2034 at 8.5% Yield. PEMEX Commits to Settling Supplier Debts by March</li>
<li>Moody’s Upgrades Ratings of Argentine Non-Financial Companies Following Country Ceiling Adjustment</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index widened by 4 bps to 317 bps in the week ended Wednesday, January 15, 2025. 
YPF Priced $1.1bn Bond Due 2034 at 8.5% Yield. PEMEX Commits to Settling Supplier Debts by March
Moody’s Upgrades Ratings of Argentine Non-Financial Companies Following Country Ceiling Adjustment


Mexico

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as an oil and gas company. The Company invests in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Vista Energy serves customers in Latin America.

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Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST US)

Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

We recommend the 2033 notes over the 2035s due to similar yield and lower duration risk, citing Vista's strong performance and lower sovereign...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy Reported a Transformational Second Quarter in 2025.

In Q2 2025, Vista reported a substantial increase in total production, which reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, reflecting an...

Baptista Research

Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds

Vista Energy shows growth potential despite temporary increase in operating costs, making it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.

Leandro Gubler

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

​We recommend the 2033 notes over the 2035s due to similar yield and lower duration risk, citing Vista's strong performance and lower sovereign...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy Reported a Transformational Second Quarter in 2025.

In Q2 2025, Vista reported a substantial increase in total production, which reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, reflecting an...

Baptista Research

Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds

​Vista Energy shows growth potential despite temporary increase in operating costs, making it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

​Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.

Leandro Gubler

We recommend the 2033 notes over the 2035s due to similar yield and lower duration risk, citing Vista's strong performance and lower sovereign...

Vista Energy shows growth potential despite temporary increase in operating costs, making it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure...

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.