Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.</li>
<li>P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.</li>
<li>Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. </li>
</ul>


We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.
P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.
Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. 


Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.</li>
<li>Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.</li>
<li>We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.
Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.
We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.


Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.</li>
<li>Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.
U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.
Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.


<ul>
<li>We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.</li>
<li>Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation.</li>
<li>Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.</li>
</ul>


We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.
Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation.
Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.


Mexico

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as an oil and gas company. The Company invests in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Vista Energy serves customers in Latin America.

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Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST US)

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy

We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

​Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

​LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy

We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to...

Leandro Gubler

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.