New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vista Group International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It was difficult to fault Vista Group's (VGL) FY24 result. Vista Cloud momentum is building strongly, and cost discipline continues to impress.</li><li>Strong operating leverage in FY24 has given VGL confidence to upgrade its long-term EBITDA margin aspiration, which we flagged as conservative, by +7.5% at the midpoint to between 33% and 37%.</li><li>While we remain attracted to VGL's medium-term earnings trajectory, several key pillars of our positive thesis have now played out. </li></ul>

It was difficult to fault Vista Group's (VGL) FY24 result. Vista Cloud momentum is building strongly, and cost discipline continues to impress.Strong operating leverage in FY24 has given VGL confidence to upgrade its long-term EBITDA margin aspiration, which we flagged as conservative, by +7.5% at the midpoint to between 33% and 37%.While we remain attracted to VGL's medium-term earnings trajectory, several key pillars of our positive thesis have now played out. 

Vista Group - FY24 Result—Just the Opening Credits

<ul><li>We expect Vista Group (VGL) to report a solid FY24 result on 28 February 2025.</li><li>A recovery in box office receipts during 2H24, currency tailwinds, and new sites going live on Vista Cloud should enable VGL to meet its revenue guidance range of NZ$148m to NZ$153m and achieve its free cash flow positive target for 4Q24.</li><li>Key focus areas will be: (1) updates on Vista Cloud adoption, (2) margin commentary, particularly around VGL's long-term targets, and (3) the outlook for the film industry heading into FY25.  </li></ul>

We expect Vista Group (VGL) to report a solid FY24 result on 28 February 2025.A recovery in box office receipts during 2H24, currency tailwinds, and new sites going live on Vista Cloud should enable VGL to meet its revenue guidance range of NZ$148m to NZ$153m and achieve its free cash flow positive target for 4Q24.Key focus areas will be: (1) updates on Vista Cloud adoption, (2) margin commentary, particularly around VGL's long-term targets, and (3) the outlook for the film industry heading into FY25.  

Vista Group - FY24 Preview—Setting the Scene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.</li><li>Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.</li><li>Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.</li></ul>

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>NZ's listed technology sector outperformed the broader market by +9% in the December 2024 quarter and +32% during 2024.</li><li>Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).</li><li>Looking ahead, we explore four significant themes poised to define the technology industry in 2025. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

NZ's listed technology sector outperformed the broader market by +9% in the December 2024 quarter and +32% during 2024.Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).Looking ahead, we explore four significant themes poised to define the technology industry in 2025. 

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 9 — Agentic, AGI and Quantum Worlds

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on Vista Group (VGL) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$3.80.</li><li>VGL is a global leader in cinema management software and film distribution technology.</li><li>We see significant opportunity for VGL as it transitions enterprise clients from its on-premise cinema management solution to its SaaS platform, Vista Cloud. </li></ul>

We initiate coverage on Vista Group (VGL) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$3.80.VGL is a global leader in cinema management software and film distribution technology.We see significant opportunity for VGL as it transitions enterprise clients from its on-premise cinema management solution to its SaaS platform, Vista Cloud. 

Vista Group - The Picture Is Clear — A Cinematic Powerhouse

New Zealand

Vista Group International Limited provides film industry software. The Company offers cinema, distribution and data analytical software to the global film industry.

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Vista Group International (VGL NZ)

Vista Group - FY24 Result—Just the Opening Credits

It was difficult to fault Vista Group's (VGL) FY24 result. Vista Cloud momentum is building strongly, and cost discipline continues to impress.

Forsyth Barr

Vista Group - FY24 Preview—Setting the Scene

A recovery in box office receipts during 2H24, currency tailwinds, and new sites going live on Vista Cloud should enable VGL to meet its revenue...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&P NZ IT Index...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 9 — Agentic, AGI and Quantum Worlds

Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).

Forsyth Barr

Vista Group - The Picture Is Clear — A Cinematic Powerhouse

VGL's 12-month forward EV/EBITDA multiple of ~24x appears undemanding, considering: (1) the long-term opportunity, and (2) clear medium-term upside...

Forsyth Barr

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