New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vista Group International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sentiment on Vista Group (VGL) has softened in recent months, reflecting: (1) weaker than expected box office trends; (2) a lack of confirmation regarding a previously flagged significant enterprise win; and (3) the market digesting accelerated spend to support the cloud transition.</li><li>Despite these perceived headwinds, VGL reiterated its 2025 site count guidance at a November conference and has not walked back FY25 revenue and margin guidance.</li><li>VGL has de-rated by ~-18% over the last three months to trade at ~17.6x consensus EV/EBITDA 12-month forward, which we view as attractive relative to our forecast +30% EBITDA CAGR from FY25 to FY28.</li></ul>

Sentiment on Vista Group (VGL) has softened in recent months, reflecting: (1) weaker than expected box office trends; (2) a lack of confirmation regarding a previously flagged significant enterprise win; and (3) the market digesting accelerated spend to support the cloud transition.Despite these perceived headwinds, VGL reiterated its 2025 site count guidance at a November conference and has not walked back FY25 revenue and margin guidance.VGL has de-rated by ~-18% over the last three months to trade at ~17.6x consensus EV/EBITDA 12-month forward, which we view as attractive relative to our forecast +30% EBITDA CAGR from FY25 to FY28.

Vista Group Box Office Blues, Cloud Still Silver Lined

<ul><li>The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.</li><li>VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.</li><li>Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.</li></ul>

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

<ul><li>September’s soft US box office data highlights the challenge of the film industry reaching VGL’s US$9.4bn estimate in FY25, with the +10% growth assumption now unlikely to be achieved given the current slate of upcoming films and the US economy.</li><li>VGL has called out a major contract that will be needed to meet FY25 expectations, and we have yet to receive notification of this signing.</li><li>We consider an announcement of the choice of a global payments supplier, or even a pilot programme, as imminent.</li></ul>

September’s soft US box office data highlights the challenge of the film industry reaching VGL’s US$9.4bn estimate in FY25, with the +10% growth assumption now unlikely to be achieved given the current slate of upcoming films and the US economy.VGL has called out a major contract that will be needed to meet FY25 expectations, and we have yet to receive notification of this signing.We consider an announcement of the choice of a global payments supplier, or even a pilot programme, as imminent.

Vista Group Box Office Data Fades as Payments Near Debut

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.</li><li>Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.</li><li>Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.</li></ul>

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>NZ's listed technology sector outperformed the broader market by +9% in the December 2024 quarter and +32% during 2024.</li><li>Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).</li><li>Looking ahead, we explore four significant themes poised to define the technology industry in 2025. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

NZ's listed technology sector outperformed the broader market by +9% in the December 2024 quarter and +32% during 2024.Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).Looking ahead, we explore four significant themes poised to define the technology industry in 2025. 

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 9 — Agentic, AGI and Quantum Worlds

New Zealand

Vista Group International Limited provides film industry software. The Company offers cinema, distribution and data analytical software to the global film industry.

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Vista Group International (VGL NZ)

Vista Group Box Office Blues, Cloud Still Silver Lined

Despite these perceived headwinds, VGL reiterated its 2025 site count guidance at a November conference and has not walked back FY25 revenue and...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and...

Forsyth Barr

Vista Group Box Office Data Fades as Payments Near Debut

VGL has called out a major contract that will be needed to meet FY25 expectations, and we have yet to receive notification of this signing.

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&P NZ IT Index...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 9 — Agentic, AGI and Quantum Worlds

Global technology markets also enjoyed a buoyant 2024, underpinned by investor optimism around the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI).

Forsyth Barr

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