New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Capital Markets

Vital Healthcare Property Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Vital Healthcare (VHP) is raising NZ$220m to fund the internalisation of its management contract.</li><li>Northwest will not participate in the offer and has agreed to an escrow arrangement through to VHP's 1H26 result in February, and to not sell below a 10% stake before the FY26 result in August 2026.</li><li>The internalisation is expected to settle on 31 December 2025 or, if more time is required to satisfy the conditions, in the first quarter of calendar year 2026.</li></ul>

Vital Healthcare (VHP) is raising NZ$220m to fund the internalisation of its management contract.Northwest will not participate in the offer and has agreed to an escrow arrangement through to VHP's 1H26 result in February, and to not sell below a 10% stake before the FY26 result in August 2026.The internalisation is expected to settle on 31 December 2025 or, if more time is required to satisfy the conditions, in the first quarter of calendar year 2026.

Vital Healthcare Capital Raise And Management Internalisation

Equity Bottom-Up

Vital Healthcare Property Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Vital Healthcare (VHP) reported an FY25 result slightly below our expectations.</li><li>Guidance was for flat distributions but with a lower payout ratio, suggesting earnings will grow in FY26 for the first time in three years.</li><li>We continue to view VHP's defensive, long-term cash flows as attractive and retain our OUTPERFORM rating.</li></ul>

Vital Healthcare (VHP) reported an FY25 result slightly below our expectations.Guidance was for flat distributions but with a lower payout ratio, suggesting earnings will grow in FY26 for the first time in three years.We continue to view VHP's defensive, long-term cash flows as attractive and retain our OUTPERFORM rating.

Vital Healthcare FY25 Result—Passing Its Annual Check Up

<ul><li>Vital Healthcare (VHP) reported a soft start to the year, with 1H25 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) down -10%, missing our expectations.</li><li>VHP retained guidance, implying FY25 AFFO down -3% on the prior year, and remains confident in a 2H25 uplift, underpinned by lower interest costs.</li><li>After a period of volatility, improving industry dynamics have driven stronger hospital earnings which is a positive for rental growth. </li></ul>

Vital Healthcare (VHP) reported a soft start to the year, with 1H25 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) down -10%, missing our expectations.VHP retained guidance, implying FY25 AFFO down -3% on the prior year, and remains confident in a 2H25 uplift, underpinned by lower interest costs.After a period of volatility, improving industry dynamics have driven stronger hospital earnings which is a positive for rental growth. 

Vital Healthcare - 1H25 Result—2H Booster Shot Coming

<ul><li>The new information that Vital Healthcare (VHP) has provided on its dual listed trust (DLT) proposal is broadly in line with our current understanding.</li><li>The key improvement is AFFO accretion, which VHP expects to be +10%–15% on a FY24 pro-forma basis, versus our estimate of c.+10%.</li><li>VHP stated that its initial conversations with investors suggests demand for Vital NZ/Vital AU is split &gt;60%/&lt;40%, and expected passive demand for Vital AU units is c.NZ$140m, which should provide a level of after implementation demand. </li></ul>

The new information that Vital Healthcare (VHP) has provided on its dual listed trust (DLT) proposal is broadly in line with our current understanding.The key improvement is AFFO accretion, which VHP expects to be +10%–15% on a FY24 pro-forma basis, versus our estimate of c.+10%.VHP stated that its initial conversations with investors suggests demand for Vital NZ/Vital AU is split &gt;60%/&lt;40%, and expected passive demand for Vital AU units is c.NZ$140m, which should provide a level of after implementation demand. 

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The listed property sector was broadly flat in October after delivering a +18% total return year-to-date.</li><li>Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk of further capital raisings weighed on sentiment.</li><li>Our analysis of the sector’s long-term development pipelines and potential funding options highlights a divide between those with access to capital (PCT, Goodman (GMT)) and those without, who may need to recycle non-core assets or tap into additional sources of capital to fund growth aspirations.</li></ul>

The listed property sector was broadly flat in October after delivering a +18% total return year-to-date.Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk of further capital raisings weighed on sentiment.Our analysis of the sector’s long-term development pipelines and potential funding options highlights a divide between those with access to capital (PCT, Goodman (GMT)) and those without, who may need to recycle non-core assets or tap into additional sources of capital to fund growth aspirations.

Real Estate Reflections Taking a Breather

New Zealand

Vital Healthcare Property Trust is a property trust that invests in and manages healthcare facilities in New Zealand and Australia.

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Vital Healthcare Property Trust (VHP NZ)

Vital Healthcare Capital Raise And Management Internalisation

Vital Healthcare (VHP) is raising NZ$220m to fund the internalisation of its management contract. Northwest will not participate in the offer and...

Forsyth Barr

Vital Healthcare FY25 Result—Passing Its Annual Check Up

Guidance was for flat distributions but with a lower payout ratio, suggesting earnings will grow in FY26 for the first time in three years.

Forsyth Barr

Vital Healthcare - 1H25 Result—2H Booster Shot Coming

Vital Healthcare (VHP) reported a soft start to the year, with 1H25 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) down -10%, missing our expectations.

Forsyth Barr

Vital Healthcare - More Light on the DLT

The new information that Vital Healthcare (VHP) has provided on its dual listed trust (DLT) proposal is broadly in line with our current...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Taking a Breather

Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk...

Forsyth Barr

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