EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/273" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:273">Morningstar</a> has noted, Brexit fears may be positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/690" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690">Telstra</a> in Australia. The unexpected Brexit vote has sent shockwaves through financial markets and it will take some time to settle down. There are many moving parts in Europe with a real potential for a rising cost of capital, FX disconnections, and possible macroeconomic fallout.Much is in the realm of the unknown, making near-term predictions difficult. However, once the dust settles, we do view telecoms as an industry that is less…

As Morningstar has noted, Brexit fears may be positive for Telstra in Australia. The unexpected Brexit vote has sent shockwaves through financial markets and it will take some time to settle down. There are many moving parts in Europe with a real potential for a rising cost of capital, FX disconnections, and possible macroeconomic fallout.Much is in the realm of the unknown, making near-term predictions difficult. However, once the dust settles, we do view telecoms as an industry that is less…

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Fears of the impact of Britain's exit from the European Union have pushed down the prices of most European communication stocks. We think this is an overreaction as we view telecom as a sector somewhat immune to geopolitical changes. In our view, Brexit will have no effect on cross-border transfers of voice or data as mobile termination rates for voice have already been reduced to negligible levels and for data have been cut in half and will be down to local roaming rates by the end of 2017.Within the U.K., we think BT will likely be the most affected as the majority of its revenue is from the U.K. Its only non-U.K. revenue is from its global services division. However, we think what losses do accrue will be offset by stronger revenue from the global services division as revenue from other currencies is translated into a weaker pound.Analysts: Allan C. Nichols, CFA

Fears of the impact of Britain's exit from the European Union have pushed down the prices of most European communication stocks. We think this is an overreaction as we view telecom as a sector somewhat immune to geopolitical changes. In our view, Brexit will have no effect on cross-border transfers of voice or data as mobile termination rates for voice have already been reduced to negligible levels and for data have been cut in half and will be down to local roaming rates by the end of 2017.Within the U.K., we think BT will likely be the most affected as the majority of its revenue is from the U.K. Its only non-U.K. revenue is from its global services division. However, we think what losses do accrue will be offset by stronger revenue from the global services division as revenue from other currencies is translated into a weaker pound.Analysts: Allan C. Nichols, CFA

We Believe Brexit Fears Have Unfairly Driven Down Shares of Most European Communication Stocks

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

United States

Vodafone Group Plc provides a range of mobile telecommunications services, including voice and data communications.  Vodafone has equity interests in 28 countries and Partner Networks in a further 7 countries with almost all the Group's mobile subsidiaries operating principally under the brand name Vodafone. In the United States their associated undertaking operates as Verizon Wireless.

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Vodafone Group Plc Sp Adr (VOD US)

Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete...

Emad Mostaque

Brexit Far More than a UK Issue

As Morningstar has noted, Brexit fears may be positive for Telstra in Australia. The unexpected Brexit vote has sent shockwaves through financial...

New Street Research

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside...

Charles De Trenck

We Believe Brexit Fears Have Unfairly Driven Down Shares of Most European Communication Stocks

Fears of the impact of Britain's exit from the European Union have pushed down the prices of most European communication stocks. We think this is...

Morningstar, Inc.

Will Brexit Break EM's Back?

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is...

Emad Mostaque

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