European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Société Générale and Engie lead our current addition screen, while Nokia/E.ON remains a live race: just 1.9% relative performance separates the two ahead of the 31 August cut-off.</li>
<li>The flow numbers favour the addition side: estimated ETF buying reaches ~7x ADV for Engie and 6.3x for E.ON, compared with 2–3x ADV selling for the main deletion candidates.</li>
<li>We favour the addition side: Engie offers the strongest prospective flow/liquidity setup, while E.ON becomes particularly interesting if it overtakes Nokia; we are more cautious on pre-positioning deletion shorts.</li>
</ul>


Société Générale and Engie lead our current addition screen, while Nokia/E.ON remains a live race: just 1.9% relative performance separates the two ahead of the 31 August cut-off.
The flow numbers favour the addition side: estimated ETF buying reaches ~7x ADV for Engie and 6.3x for E.ON, compared with 2–3x ADV selling for the main deletion candidates.
We favour the addition side: Engie offers the strongest prospective flow/liquidity setup, while E.ON becomes particularly interesting if it overtakes Nokia; we are more cautious on pre-positioning deletion shorts.


EURO STOXX 50: Trading the September Rebalance

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A disappointing wage agreement for German metal workers in November was an early indicator that trade unions will be a poor match against employers in upcoming wage negotiations. </li>
<li>The 5 most important wage battlegrounds to watch in Europe in Q2-Q3 will be Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands - read full case studies below.</li>
<li>Despite weak unions, current broad-based wage pressures of 4-5% is enough to keep core inflation TOO elevated in the Euro zone. The ECB has more work to do on tightening.</li>
</ul>


A disappointing wage agreement for German metal workers in November was an early indicator that trade unions will be a poor match against employers in upcoming wage negotiations. 
The 5 most important wage battlegrounds to watch in Europe in Q2-Q3 will be Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands - read full case studies below.
Despite weak unions, current broad-based wage pressures of 4-5% is enough to keep core inflation TOO elevated in the Euro zone. The ECB has more work to do on tightening.


Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Tax / Cover Story: China’s tax system gets a digital upgrade</li><li>Investment banking /: Investment banker Bao Fan is aiding an investigation, China Renaissance says</li><li>Corruption /: Ex-provincial vice governor indicted for bribery, leaking insider information</li></ul>

Tax / Cover Story: China’s tax system gets a digital upgradeInvestment banking /: Investment banker Bao Fan is aiding an investigation, China Renaissance saysCorruption /: Ex-provincial vice governor indicted for bribery, leaking insider information

CX Daily: China’s Tax System Gets a Digital Upgrade

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global Autos underweight hits a record high among active Global Funds</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> the driving force behind the move, with only 12.7% of managers invested as index weights soared.</li>
<li>Tesla is now chronically under-owned compared to its own index weight, making it the largest drag on performance for the average active global fund this year.</li>
</ul>


Global Autos underweight hits a record high among active Global Funds

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) the driving force behind the move, with only 12.7% of managers invested as index weights soared.
Tesla is now chronically under-owned compared to its own index weight, making it the largest drag on performance for the average active global fund this year.


Global Autos Hit Record Underweight: Tesla Piles on the Pain

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.</li>
<li>The final rankings for the September 2026 review will be decided based on data as of the close of 31st August 2026.</li>
<li>We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the September 2026 review, with the possibility of one more ADD/DEL pair.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.
The final rankings for the September 2026 review will be decided based on data as of the close of 31st August 2026.
We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the September 2026 review, with the possibility of one more ADD/DEL pair.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: Annual Review Incoming; Two Changes So Far; US$3.8bn+ One-Way

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

EURO STOXX 50: Trading the September Rebalance

The EURO STOXX 50 September review is creating increasingly actionable index trades. Our pro-forma ranking and flow model identifies where the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For

A decline in real wages across the European continent has heightened expectation for upcoming collective bargaining agreements. We point you to the...

Steno Research

CX Daily: China’s Tax System Gets a Digital Upgrade

Tax / Cover Story: China’s tax system gets a digital upgrade Investment banking /: Investment banker Bao Fan is aiding an investigation, China...

Caixin Global

Global Autos Hit Record Underweight: Tesla Piles on the Pain

Global Autos underweight hits a record high among active Global Funds. Tesla Motors (TSLA US) the driving force behind the move, with only 12.7%...

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: Annual Review Incoming; Two Changes So Far; US$3.8bn+ One-Way

The two ADDs and two DELs are well-flagged — the real question is whether Societe Generale can squeeze past the sector threshold test, which would...

Afridi Reyal

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