High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The most useful way to think about the current war in eastern Europe is not to frame it as a confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, but between the EU and Russia.</li><li>And since Germany is the leading country in the EU, it’s ultimately a confrontation between Germany and Russia.</li><li>These two have repeatedly clashed for hundreds of years. And every time, this has caused devastation for the entire continent and beyond. They are the deadliest neighbors on this planet.</li></ul>

The most useful way to think about the current war in eastern Europe is not to frame it as a confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, but between the EU and Russia.And since Germany is the leading country in the EU, it’s ultimately a confrontation between Germany and Russia.These two have repeatedly clashed for hundreds of years. And every time, this has caused devastation for the entire continent and beyond. They are the deadliest neighbors on this planet.

🔎Is Europe sleepwalking into World War III?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, coincides with America’s 250th anniversary and arrives two years before the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.</li><li>For the Trump administration, the sequence of marquee events has become a central part of the political legacy it hopes to build in a second presidential term.</li><li>The U.S. was eliminated July 6 after a 4-1 loss to Belgium in the round of 16.</li></ul>

World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, coincides with America’s 250th anniversary and arrives two years before the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.For the Trump administration, the sequence of marquee events has become a central part of the political legacy it hopes to build in a second presidential term.The U.S. was eliminated July 6 after a 4-1 loss to Belgium in the round of 16.

CX Daily: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch 

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Germany’s Federal Court has finally closed the €5.4bn VW stake-building litigation, removing an 18-year legal overhang and the residual risk of an adverse appeal.</li>
<li>The ruling does not change our €34.36/share NAV, as we never deducted the claims from SOTP and Celle had already substantially de-risked the case in 2022.</li>
<li>PAH3 trades at a 28.6% discount to NAV. A 25% discount implies 5.1% upside; getting to 20%, or 12.1% upside, probably needs deleveraging or better VW/Porsche AG performance.</li>
</ul>


Germany’s Federal Court has finally closed the €5.4bn VW stake-building litigation, removing an 18-year legal overhang and the residual risk of an adverse appeal.
The ruling does not change our €34.36/share NAV, as we never deducted the claims from SOTP and Celle had already substantially de-risked the case in 2022.
PAH3 trades at a 28.6% discount to NAV. A 25% discount implies 5.1% upside; getting to 20%, or 12.1% upside, probably needs deleveraging or better VW/Porsche AG performance.


Porsche SE: What Was the €5.4bn Claim Worth?

<ul><li>Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition</li><li>China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites</li><li>Analysis: Could Global Oil Shock Trigger Imported Stagflation in China?</li></ul>

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward AttritionChina’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform BitesAnalysis: Could Global Oil Shock Trigger Imported Stagflation in China?

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition 

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

🔎Is Europe sleepwalking into World War III?

The most useful way to think about the current war in eastern Europe is not to frame it as a confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, but between...

Fallacy Alarm

CX Daily: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch

TOP STORIES Cover Story: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U. S. , Canada and Mexico, coincides...

Caixin Global

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

Porsche SE: What Was the €5.4bn Claim Worth?

The €5.4bn VW litigation is finally over, but PAH3 already trades near its pre-Porsche AG historical discount. We assess what the ruling is worth...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites Analysis: Could...

Caixin Global

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